The Threat: Spies, diplomats, the media and common sense

---

See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Maybe itÕs time to review the bidding: 9/11Õs horrible events were not just a personal tragedy for Americans. The ability of fanatical, irreconcilable enemies to use the U.S. open societyÕs inevitable vulnerability, to employ its very own technology as a weapon, presents a new threat. What used to be considered often seemingly irrational calls for American destruction, from Òfar and distant places about which we know littleÓ ø to use Neville ChamberlainÕs phrase when the British prime minister tried unsuccessfully to wheedle peace from a threatening Hitler ø now must be seriously evaluated and eliminated.

Trying to figure out what is happening in the outside world is not a new obligation of the U.S. government. World War II and the Cold War forced Washington to vastly enlarge its diplomatic corps and create new cloak-and-dagger organizations. Whatever went wrong with those organizations ø if indeed they should have anticipated the 9/11 events Ñ it is clear that the problem is now much greater than ever. And it will require new invigorated efforts.

Nowhere is that more true than in Asia. And nowhere more apparent than in our dealings with North Korea. Analyzing the actions ø and intentions ø of a state for more than 50 years sealed off from the outside world, seeking through every device to obscure its internal workings, makes our speculations about the Soviet Union appear relatively easy. And to do it with finesse that would defuse the threat of war, prevent a rogue state from achieving nuclear blackmail, halt proliferation of weapons to other rogue states and possibly nonstate terrorist organizations, will require more adequate information.

The old American trap of ÒscientismÓ ø the belief the world is logical and the application of ÒscienceÓ can solve all problems ø has led to an overdependence on new technological spying weapons. But old-fashioned basic human intelligence including knowledge of language [we are reduced to using Arabic-speakers whose loyalty is dubious at best in our present encounter in Iraq and the Middle East], history, and culture are a new priority in what President Bush has always insisted, probably correctly, will be a long struggle. The tools of cultural conflict which were at least marginally effective in The Cold War ø propaganda and its allied psychological warfare Ñ have to be recreated. Sending an emissary to Beijing and Seoul ø as we have done recently Ñ to talk about admitting North Korean refugees to the U.S. is an example. Remember when the East Germans escaping into still Communist Czechoslovakia and on to the West led to MoscowÕs refusal/inability to intervene, and the unraveling of the whole East Bloc?

It means breaking through new PC criteria for intelligence gathering and breaking out of Inside-the-Beltway cronyism that has apparently infected our spying replacing common sense. TIME magazine says Joseph Wilson, a former U.S. embassy official in Niger, was sent on Òa secret missionÓ to investigate whether that country had sold Sadaam uranium. A former embassy official on a ÒsecretÓ mission to a country where he had been posted! A clandestine agent married to an ambassador! People in host countries do assume that any ambassadorÕs wife is part of the intelligence operations. As one who has lived and worked in these countries, I can assure readers that although it was not true, a reporter is always believed to also be reporting to official U.S. intelligence.

And, realistically, the great majority of ÒintelligenceÓ moves are in the ÒopenÓ, that is through nonofficial media and exchanges, a precept as old as the spying business. During the Cold war, the largest NKVD/KGB establishment outside the Soviet Bloc in Mexico City Ñ where Mexicans noted they often spoke no Spanish Ñ spent their time collecting U.S. catalogues, directories, scientific papers, maps, local newspapers, etc., as valuable as any of their clandestine operations across the southern border.

One has to assume that we are girding the loins of our intelligence community for the new, gigantic job ahead. Setting the priorities may be the toughest test. Monitoring the proposed Chinese manned space flight ø with its obvious military and strategic implications Ñ may be primarily a job for the scientists. But following the Chinese media and having personal contacts that give us the latest on the continuing competition between President-Party Secretary Hu and Chairman of the Central Military Commissions Jiang may just as important. The state of Indian Prime Minister VajpayeeÕs health could be as important as his BJPÕstrategy for next yearÕs elections. Whether Prime Minister Mahathir will actually withdraw when he retires later this year after 30 years in office, as well as the acuity of his chosen successor, is essential to knowing how much success we will have in collaborating with Malaysia in pursuit of Al QaidaÕs Southeast Asian wings.

Intelligence, after all, is just that. And common sense Ñ sound judgment not based on specialized knowledge ø is an indispensable part of it.