Korean nuclear roulette?
UNITED NATIONS Ñ ItÕs better to Òjaw-jaw than war-war,Ó once advised Winston Churchill. Such sentiments were clearly the logic of the six state talks to defuse the threat from communist North KoreaÕs budding nuclear weapons program. So when delegations from the two Koreas, the U.S., Japan, PeopleÕs China, and Russia recently met in Beijing, the focused goal of the diplomats was trying to talk the neo-Stalinist North Koreans out of widening their nuclear weapons proliferation.
Despite the multilateral negotiations with the quaintly titled Democratic PeopleÕs Republic of Korea (DPRK), there was no formal breakthrough. Still the good news was that rhetorical flare-ups did not derail the discussions. Jim KellyÕs State Department team kept the game going and the delegations will meet at later date.
Actually the multinational talks remain a realistic alternative to a full blown UN Security Council attempt to slap near meaningless economic sanctions on the DPRK. After all regional powers have the most to gain and lose through a positive outcome.
Interestingly PyongyangÕs erstwhile comrades in the PeopleÕs Republic of China played a particularly proactive role in trying to settle the nuclear crisis. Why? Any military flare-up or deeper political crisis on the Korean peninsulaÑafter all a geographical appendage of Mainland China itselfÑcan disrupt BeijingÕs business and regional economic growth. Moreover as refugees from North Korea regularly flee to China in search of food, those numbers could increase.
While the North Koreans have clearly been playing for time Ñ at this point, so is the USA on the verge of moving into a Presidential election cycle. Given the current imbroglio in Iraq, the last thing the Bush Administration needs in a full blown nuclear confrontation on the volatile Korean peninsula. And with 38,000 American forces stationed in South Korea along the demilitarized zone (DMZ), any flare-up would immediately involve US forces.
The expansion of North KoreaÕs nuclear program remains a lingering legacy of a dangerously flawed diplomatic deal between the Clinton Administration and the DPRK, which was supposed to have frozen PyongyangÕs efforts to build more bombs. The 1994 Geneva Agreements have come back to haunt us since the Pyongyang communists have needless to say broken the agreement by clandestine nuclear proliferation.
Inspectors from the UNÕs International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were unceremoniously booted from North Korea this year and Pyongyang pulled out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
The U.S. under pressure from Japan, is pressing to defuse the DPRK time bombÑeither through concessions now or later. The Bush Administration is split on the timing and the extent of incentives for Pyongyang should it go verifiably nuclear cold turkey.
Administration hawks donÕt for a moment believe that the Pyongyang is ready to cash in its nuclear chipsÑthus forsaking its ultimate political cardÑin exchange for food, economic aid, and World Bank membership. Furthermore thereÕs the possibility that Pyongyang will carry out a nuclear test for political effect. The blackmail fallout from such a provocation would be boundless in the short to medium term.
Briefly the stakes are these Ñ USA Ñ treaty bound to defend South Korea, 38,000 Americans along the tinderbox DMZ. If the balloon goes up, we have a front row seat.
South KoreaÑthe ultimate prize and targetÑKimÕs northern communists have never renounced the use of force to reunify the divided peninsula. Can SeoulÕs Sunshine Policy of economic payoffs keep the wolves at bay?
PRC Ñ trying to distance themselves from loose cannon DPRK comrades whose reckless actions can destabilize regional commerce and sidetrack ChinaÕs economic plans.
Japan Ñ North Korea holds an intense distain for Japan from the colonial era and if it had one shot would likely try to take out a Japanese city. Fearing this at long last Tokyo plans a missile defense shield to counter this threat. Pyongyang already has 700 ballistic missiles capable of reaching JapanÑwith or without nuclear warheads.
DPRK Ñ Fear Factor Ñ a moribund Marxist regime gets undue attention through nuclear blackmail. But can the regime survive its self-inflicted economic shambles?
Russia Ñ Far Eastern regionÕs Vladivostok port perilously close by; wonÕt likely go to bat for former comrades.
Either way diplomatic and economic incentives to the DPRK may remain little more than a calculated game of roulette. The game is far from finished.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
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