One thousand and one Baghdad nights
UNITED NATIONS Ñ The afterglow of the Anglo/American victory over SaddamÕs tyranny in Iraq seems to have been more bitter than sweet. While allied forces produced nothing less than an extraordinary military triumph, the slow but sure civil re-stabilization in the aftermath has been less spectacular, and thus open to sniping both from Saddam loyalists in Iraq and from domestic political critics in the USA.
First off, as President George W. Bush has repeatedly stated, both the war and its immediate rebuilding aftermath will not be easy endeavors. Ironically the combat phase in March/April was probably quicker than planned for and the post-war occupation phase will be more complicated than envisaged. Attacks on American forces by regime holdouts have refocused the debate on immediate physical security issues.
Nonetheless the 150,000 American troops in Iraq Ñ along with reinforcements on the way Ñ still wonÕt solve the problem, but may stop the clock on further security deterioration.
At issue remains the underlying political assumption that somehow all Iraqis wanted to be rid of Saddam. While this holds true for the majority, the dictator did command the allegiance Ñ often through carrot and stick Ñ of a sizable minority. LetÕs not be too naive and think that thugs the likes of Saddam, the Iranian mullahs, or Assad Jr. in Syria, donÕt have some support. And while the clear majority of Iraqis are happily rid of Saddam, that does not mean they will embrace the alternative either.
The liberation of Iraq moreover opened a political PandoraÕs box of factions Ñ the decent and freedom-loving Kurdish minority in the north, as well as the long-forgotten Shiite Muslim majority in the South. The Shiites, whose version of Islam is similar to Iran,
donÕt favor a Western style democracy as much as they do an Iranian-style Islamic Republic.
Churning anarchy seems to bedevil Americans the most. Witness the post-war reportage Ñ the shameful looting and lawlessness by Iraqis against their own people and property was not our fault but now has become our legal responsibility. Though the physical bomb damage in Baghdad was quite surgical and limited, the mobs of Iraqi looters on the ground destroyed more than our cruise missiles.
Now we have the unenviable job of sorting out Saddam loyalists in every Ministry, school and office, catching terrorists, and stopping criminal gangs which along with SaddamÕs cronies profited richly profited from the economic sanctions.
Since the UN Security Council has lifted the twelve year economic embargo on Iraq, donÕt expect any economic panacea soon. Postwar Iraq has a long way to go Ñ even the Baghdad international airport is not fully functioning.
Expecting the Iraqi desert to bloom in the aftermath of lifting sanctions is a mirage. Add that to the state control and corrupt cronyism of SaddamÕs socialist BaÕath Party and the challenge becomes larger. Still a gradual stabilization will then likely lead to business confidence which could translate into commercial contracts down the road.
Upon his appointment Sergio Veira de Mello, the UNÕs Special Repsenentative for Iraq
stressed the need for physical security and the end to lawlessness as the primary ingredients for the Iraq mission to move forward. An Economist article lamented ÒFreedom, but without Law and Order.Ó
People will often compare the rebuilding process in post war Japan and Germany when looking at economic and social chaos in Iraq. ItÕs oft forgotten that the first few years of the Allied occupation in both Japan and Germany were saddled with near total economic crisis, food rationing, worthless currency and political bickering. Until genuine currency reform in Germany in 1948 Ñ three years after the war, did matters only then begin to stabilize. Happily IraqÕs extraordinary petroleum resources can greatly boost its recovery.
Ambassador Paul Bremmer, the U.S. ÒViceroyÓ for Iraq has been given the unenviable job of sorting out this imbroglio. Now heÕs been unfairly criticized for having too much enthusiasm in ferreting out SaddamÕs political holdouts in Ministries and not producing socio/economic wonders overnight. Amb. BremmerÕs mandate after all is not being a magician but for marshalling reconstruction and humanitarian assistance.
Still no matter what the scenario, and until the handover to an elected Iraqi civilian government, the U.S. can expect to spend at lest one thousand and one nights in Baghdad.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
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