 Venezuela on the brink
UNITED NATIONS Ñ ItÕs a vital oil-rich country immersed in political crisis and social disorder. ItÕs a key American petroleum supplier who has turned off the taps. ItÕs an immense land where regional neighbors fear the economic fallout of the ongoing political chaos. And now the UN has become involved in the process of defusing this ticking time bomb. We are not talking the Middle East but Venezuela, a South American powerhouse which has gone into reverse gear.
VenezuelaÕs embattled President Hugo Chavez visited the UN to turn over his countryÕs chairmanship of the Group of 77, but his trip had more to do with shoring up Third World support for his increasingly autocratic political style, as much as passing the gavel.
President Chavez has long played the populist card with a touch of less than subtle drama. A Castro wannabe without the charisma of the Cuban Caudillo, Chavez has played his countryÕs poor like a fiddle. HeÕs outraged the Middle classes and crippled the once robust economy. Through less than subtle but deliberate diplomacy, met with IraqÕs Saddam Hussein in Iraq, something which did little to ingratiate him with Washington.
The usually apolitical middle classes have been energized by the high-handedness and rife corruption of the Chavez regime and its cronies; the people are haunted by the specter of revolutionary rhetoric evoking a dŽjˆ vu of the 1960Õs and 1970Õs. Chavez views the Cuban communist dictator Fidel Castro as a political campanero.
For months now, a near ritual of protest by the business, civic, and labor groups has gripped the capital Caracas as opposition and Chavez supporters face off often violently. Large demonstrations evoking the drama which finally brought down the dictator Slobodan Milosevic in Serbia have rocked Caracas. While the opposition has been emboldened, and the international community seeks mediators to defuse an increasing dangerous situation, Chavez stated bombastically that ÒI donÕt have the slightest doubt of our triumph ... we will win.Ó
Scoffing at mediation efforts by the Organization of American States (OAS) which would bring regional states into the peace process, Chavez insists that Cuba, Russia, Communist China, and France be part of the negotiation process too. This is patently absurd!
Chavez told the UN press that Òthere will be no civil war in Venezuela, and that his government was confronting a Òsubversive movement.Ó And guess who is behind much of this? ÒThe psychological campaign in Venezuela was being planned and financed with the help of individuals in the United States.Ó
Last yearÕs brief and bungled military coup against Chavez fizzled out, but the fate of the regime rests with the military. The armed forces remain both Hugo ChavezÕs political protector and his possible punishment. Himself a former paratroop officer, Chavez has thrown his nation into dangerous freefall.
Naturally much hinges on the economy which is sliding backwards due to strikes and stoppages. Since 1999, the economy has shrunk by 10 percent and this year expects to see a similar decline. Chavez has succeeded in turning a fairly prosperous land into a poor one.
The Economist lamented of Venezuela, ÒA divided country self-destructs.Ó
Strikes and stoppages aimed at forcing Chavez from office have worsened everyday life but have not forced the dictatorÕs hand but energized his proletarian prattle.
Now the vital petroleum industry is floundering. Chavez conceded that only about one million barrels a day, a third of typical production was being pumped. (thatÕs about half what IraqÕs antiquated oil industry pumps) and that the Òdecrease was the result of sabotage of by those involved in the subversive movement who had struck at the very heart of Venezuela.Ó The country is the worldÕs fifth largest oil producer and naturally shortfalls have caused a jump in world petroleum prices.
After the economic meltdown in Argentina and now dangerous crisis in Venezuela, Washington would be wise to redouble its damage control through the Organization of American States. Democracy in Venezuela must be a goal, but making the wheels of progress move forward again must be the first priority.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
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