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European showdown with Iran: Who will blink? Who will profit?


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By John Metzler
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Monday, Oct. 27, 2003

UNITED NATIONS Ñ Three West European Foreign Ministers came calling to Teheran on the eve of an Oct 31st make or break diplomatic deadline over IranÕs suspect nuclear programs. Though a political crisis was looming between the guardians of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the world community, the three musketeers of Euroland arrived in time to presumably save the day.

The Halloween deadline for Teheran to come clean to the International Atomic Energy Agency ( IAEA) was linked to an ultimatum Ñ in other words cooperate with the UN watchdog agency or face political pressures from the Security Council. The problem with such ultimatums to dictatorships is that the dictators rarely blink and the outside powers wink Ñ in other words, give them a deal, and let them off creatively as to postpone the crisis.

In this case unspecified UN sanctions were threatened, though for all practical purposes getting a draft resolution through the Security Council seemed remote given a near certain Russian veto and a likely question mark over whether France would use its veto. Given European dependency on Iranian petroleum, itÕs unlikely that TeheranÕs primary export would be restricted in any case.

ThereÕs a disturbing parallel with the current accord with Islamic Iran and the deal the Clinton Administration struck back in 1994 with North Korea. Those Geneva accords had the same noble aims Ñ to give the North Korean incentives to shelve its plutonium production in favor of the peaceful pursuit of nuclear power. Sure. Now nearly a decade later Pyongyang is laughing in our face over its prescribed plutonium production, the North Koreans are still isolated and no less dangerous, and the legacy of Bill ClintonÕs dangerous deal with the DPRK shadows us.

The recent mission to Teheran mission was pretty impressive though Ñ three high powered European Foreign Ministers among them our indefatigable friends Dominique de Villepin of France, Joshka Fisher of Germany, and Jack Straw of the United Kingdom simultaneously swooping down on the capital of Islamic darkness to bring the offer of EurolandÕs enlightenment. The setting allowed for the usual third way Euro compromise to the simmering face-off between Washington and TeheranÕs hard line Ayatollahs.

Minister Dominique de Villepin conceded in FranceÕs Le Figaro newspaper, ÒIt wonÕt bring an immediate solution. But it will permit a passing from a crisis to confidence, and from silence to dialogue. For Iran, it will be a decisive step.Ó

The three musketeers visited Iran at the very time President George W. Bush was in the Far East lobbying against the reckless North Korean nuclear proliferation. This may have been arranged in parallel to WashingtonÕs efforts (unlikely) or precisely to take advantage of the American preoccupation in Asia. Either way, the mission was meant to highlight Europe as a key player on the global stage.

A joint statement clearly stated, ÒThe Iranians authorities reaffirmed that nuclear weapons have no place in IranÕs defense doctrine and that the nuclear program and activities have been exclusively in the peaceful domain.Ó Why am I not surprised?

It also added that the Iranian government has decided to fully cooperate with IAEA inspections and added, ÒWhile Iran has a right within the nuclear non-proliferation regime to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, it has decided to voluntarily suspend all uranium enrichment and processing activities as defined by the IAEA.Ó

There are strong suspicions that Iran was testing centrifuges with enriched uranium, a step towards building a bomb, something the IAEA wants to clarify.

Russia is currently building two reactors at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf; there are also nuclear research facilities in Teheran and at Bonab, Ramsar, and Isfahan.

Following the communiquŽ France, Germany, and the UK stated, ÒOnce international concerns including those of the three governments are fully resolved, Iran could expect easier access to modern technology and supplies in a range of areas.Ó No doubt both Paris and Berlin have a wider commercial agenda in mind for Iran, which would supercede TeheranÕs need for additional Russian reactors.

Washington has lobbied intensely to stop the Islamic Republic of Iran from pursuing the nuclear genie Ñ whether or not TeheranÕs proscribed programs have been slowed down or really stopped remains a haunting question.

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

Monday, Oct. 27, 2003




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