The United States is considering revising its
assessment of when Iran would achieve nuclear weapons capability.
U.S. officials said an inspection by the International Atomic Energy
Agency of unreported Iranian nuclear facilities has disclosed new
capabilities that had not been envisioned by the Bush administration. They
said the IEAE inspection of Natanz on Feb. 21 pointed to Iranian capability
in uranium enrichment, a vital element in the production of nuclear weapons.
The result is that the U.S. intelligence community appears ready to
advance its prediction for when Iran will produce nuclear weapons from 2006
to 2005. Officials said the change would be in line with an Israeli
assessment rejected by the CIA and State Department last year.
Officials said the key to any revision of the U.S. intelligence
assessment would be what they termed the startling development of the Natanz
nuclear facility. Natanz is said to contain 160 new gas centrifuges, part of
a plan to assemble 5,000 systems for uranium enrichment. They said some of
the centrifuges have been tested.
In all, the IAEA found components for 1,000 centrifuges at Natanz,
officials said. The facility is expected to be completed in 2005 and will
capable of producing enough uranium for at least two nuclear weapons per
year. The agency did not have access to the entire facility.
"Iran has been trying in secret to construct a uranium enrichment plant
and a heavy water plant," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said on
Monday. "The first could be used to produce highly enriched uranium for
weapons, the second could support a reactor for producing weapons-grade
plutonium."
On Monday, the Washington-based Institute for Science and International
Security asserted that Iran has begun operating the Natanz centrifuge plant.
The nuclear watchdog group released satellite images of Natanz taken on Feb.
7.
The IAEA has also determined that Iran constructed another facility for
the conversion of uranium into UF6 or uranium hexafluoride. UF6 is the
gaseous form of the metal employed in centrifuges and was imported by Iran
from an unidentified country. Last month, Israel first reported the Iranian
import of UF6.
Last week, Iran announced that Natanz would be opened within the next
few weeks. U.S. officials believe that the UF6 facility has supplied gaseous
uranium to the Natanz centrifuge plant.
"We were well aware of Iran's efforts to obtain nuclear systems and
technology," a U.S. official who specializes in Iran said. "But we
underestimated the speed with which Iran absorbed the technology and
advanced vital projects. We can no longer be comforted by the illusion that
we're dealing with a bunch of amateurs."
Officials said Iran obtained technology and components from a range of
countries in an attempt to obtain capability to complete the full nuclear
cycle. Iran received help from Belarus, China, North Korea, Russia and
Ukraine to ensure that it would not be dependent on any foreign power for a
vital element in the production of nuclear weapons, particularly the supply
of uranium.
Iran's new facilities at Natanz and Arak could ensure that the Islamic
republic would not need foreign suppliers for its nuclear program. Iran
plans to mine uranium and then could enrich the metal for the production of
weapons.
"It shows you how a determined nation that has the intent to develop a
nuclear weapon can keep that development process secret from inspectors and
outsiders, if they really are determined to do it," Secretary of State Colin
Powell said.
The IAEA has determined that Iran has not violated the Non-Proliferation
Treaty. Under the NPT, Iran can enrich uranium and was not required to
report Natanz to the agency until uranium processing began.
