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Ding, Dong, the Witch is Dead ...
The Capture of Saddam Hussein;
Immediate winners and losers

By Frederick Peterson
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Thurday, December 18, 2003

Well, this 'Wicked Witch' is not dead, but better, - he is in snared the steely hands of the George Bush, the Tin Man who never lost his heart, Donald Rumsfeldt, the Scarecrow with the field-tested, transformational brain, and stiff upper lipped Tony Blair, our British Lion friend with steadiest of courage.

The capture of Saddam Hussein can hardly be over-estimated. (though I am sure some will ...)

The consequences of that capture will have immediate and profound consequences.

There are clear winners.

There are clear losers.

There is a palpable exhale of relief throughout the Alliance of the Willing and among freedom loving peoples throughout the world.

The details of the capture could hardly be more metaphoric. This brutal butcher and mass murderer, this vicar of viciousness and cruelty, this pretender to Generalship, this Palace-builder and monumental mouse of a monster, proved in the end to be a simpering coward. Behind the curtain was no Terrible Wizard or Witch - there was a homeless little man in a hole. He surrendered not with a shot but a simper; not with suicidal 'bang' but a whimper.

His Vileness was pulled, bearded, bedraggled, and cowering, from a filthy six foot deep spider hole underneath a mud hut, among his own in Takrit. He was turned in, some early reports have it, by a wife. How fitting. The Mystique of the Wily Rogue played throughout the world plays no more. Osama Ben Laden, take note. And dig deeper.

The coming days will flood us with commentary and spin. But a signal victory is clear today.

Let us estimate the immediate effects of this momentous event:

* George Bush - already a favorite for re-election, has had his prospects significantly - perhaps decisively - enhanced. This will reinforce his confidence in domestic as well as foreign policy as it confirms his faith in Faith. It makes the job of keeping his Republican majorities in Congress disciplined and 'on message' far easier. It permits "W" to author the music of policy with less compromise among Democrats as well; it sends anti-war Democrats rummaging for other Issues (look for the trade Issue, Big Labor, and job loss to take a larger role); it will embolden the President to act more decisively at home and abroad (herein lies a danger between 'taking advantage' and 'over-play' ...) It will be a Merry Christmas indeed in the Bush White House.

* Donald Rumsfeld - under fire of late, now has some breathing room and arguably confirmation for his mission to transform the way we organize, arm, integrate our armed forces, and fight our wars. Rumsfeld is - if anything - a decisive leader. He will take fullest advantage of this victory to press his plan for bold transformation. Today will strengthen his hand in dealing with the recalcitrant among the flag officers and industries who have been fighting a rear- guard, bureaucratic guerrilla war within the Pentagon to save the 'old order'. Along with Rumsfeld, the Intelligence and Special Forces community are big winners today. Task Force 21, acting on superbly acquired, analyzed, and timely transferred actionable intelligence, and choreographed brilliantly with the conventional 4th ID. This was textbook 'transformation.' Also, look for another star for the ascending Gen. Ray Ordierno of the 4th ID.

* Tony Blair - the politically troubled but stalwart British Lion, is given a confirming jump in the polls. His hand is strengthened in dealing with insurgence within his own labor party as it further dispirits the newly reorganized, but hapless, Tories.

* The Iraqi People - tentative in their embrace of their liberators while the hated Saddam still breathed, now wildly celebrate in the streets - except in Tikrit. Look for a swifter transition to civilian rule, greater participation in the fledgling government, and more rapid and confident development of capitol resources, more world investment within a free economy. Without the uncertainty of Saddam looming over this troubled land, the dynamic for radical Islam taking root in Iraq is diminished. Look for growing confidence and coherence in Iraq and Lessons Learned in Syria and Iran.

* The Alliance of the Willing - and their political leadership, from Italy and Spain to Poland and Japan are Justified through Faith. In Europe, look for "New Europe" to be ascendant on this success. Already, the French and German plan for European Union is rejected from smaller countries. Today they will be reinforced in their doubts that the future will speak French. Japan also gains, as they have just confirmed the first deployment of combat troops off the Home Island since World War II. Timely indeed ...

* Steady-Joe Lieberman - who suffered, surrounded by slings and arrows, in defense of our war in Iraq breathed life into a campaign seemingly on life support. Steady Joe enjoyed - ironically - his very best week in the Presidential Sweepstakes due exclusively to circumstances beyond his control or imaginings. After his betrayal by Al Gore, which twisted him toward public sympathy, the capture of Saddam makes him once again a possible top tier contender, especially in critical New Hampshire. Watch for favorable media notice, endorsements, - and contributions - to go up.

* Neo-Cons - those enthusiastic advocates of Global (almost Messianic) Democracy - are elated by this development. Rightly or wrongly, their hand upon the wheel of policy will necessarily be strengthened. Danger: overplay and exaggeration of the meaning of the captur. Neo-cons seem congenitally prone to over reach. Ambition - some would say grandly idealistic illusion - is always their siren call ...

And there are surely losers ...

* Notably France, and to a lesser extent Germany and Russia - will offer public congratulations but suffer private pangs of doubt about their obstruction and obstinence to support regime change in Iraq. The issue of lucrative reconstruction contracts, unlikely to be modified in their favor heretofore, are now almost beyond any immediate hope for them. France has exerted a power and prestige based more on habit and history than actual potency since World War Two, or Dien Bien Phu. The likelihood that they will succeed in their machinations to lead a unified Europe has suffered yet another hard hit today. The dynamics of demographics, delusions, self-doubt, and events spin out of their control and Things French are increasingly marginalized. It is likely very soon that Germany and Russia will move to distance themselves from the French and reconcile with 'New Europe' to gain a seat at a table not of their setting. How France will respond to this will be fascinating to watch ...

* The United Nations - also suffers yet another blow to its legitimacy as the premier World's Forum. More than one hundred countries in this 'model institution' recently declined to participate in the UN's own counter terror activities. If we were to be ruled by this 'majority vote' there would BE no War on Terror. At least there would be no effective response to war on us. The lie, the hypocrisy, and the ineffectuality of this sad, moribund collection of kleptocracies, and petit tyrants many of whom we pretend represent anyone but themselves is every day more evident. The highly successful and principled actions of American Coalition of the Willing - as opposed to hollow United Nations oratory - makes the days of the United Nations as we know it, numbered.

* Howard Dean - may well have suffered a surprisingly unexpected blow in his bull-rush to the Democrat nomination. Yet no single competitor clearly stands to gain, except perhaps Senator Lieberman. But of all candidates, Dean has proven himself to be most agile - some would say jelly-like - in his ability to re-cast himself and his angry rant to please the newly recruited McGovern-like Child's Crusade. Look for some very fancy dancing and diversion from this Maestro of Malcontent. Democrats as a political party are not just in disarray; since losing the House, the Senate, the Presidency, a majority of governorships and state houses, and bearing up an impeached and stained President, they are desperately near needing life support. All of George Soros' billions cannot breathe life in to a Dead Party Walking, which does not yet know it is dead. Look for Howard Dean to move toward taking his internet base and forming a Third Party after his defeat in 2004. The movement dynamic in this direction began on the day Saddam was captured.

Never forget: within every success not properly planted and cultivated lie the seeds of failure.

This is decidedly not the end of terrorist activity in Iraq, - against us, our allies, moderate Islam, nor against the Iraqi people.

Unbridled Enthusiasm can never be allowed get the better of steady, prudential judgment. We are and shall remain at war. We shall suffer blows and we should be prepared to receive them with eyes wide open.

Though this "Wicked Witch" is better-than-dead, there are other specters of evil lurking in the world against whom we are still and yet being tested. Al Kaida, Hammas, the Palestinian Question, Saudi upheaval in the center of Wahabbist Islam, changing relations with Europe, China and North Korea - to hopelessly mix metaphors, there is much grist yet for the mill and many a slip twixt the cup and the lip.

But as for now, we can allow our war face in the Terror-War to crack a momentary smile, and know that today a large Victory with profound consequences was ours. Ding Dong the Witch is wounded...the War goes on.

Frederick Peterson is a former Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel, Military Editor for WorldTribune.com and a frequent commentator on Fox News Channel. He is a Senior Vice President at Xybernaut Corporation.

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