WASHINGTON Ñ A new CIA report warns that proliferation has enabled Iran, Iraq and
North Korea "to accelerate missile development."
The report by the National Intelligence Council, a CIA-based
interagency analysis group, said Washington will face the threat of a
ballistic missile attack from these three countries by 2015.
The report cited North Korea's Taepo Dong-2 missile as
being able to reach the United States with a nuclear warhead. The CIA said
the missile could be ready for a flight test. A classified report was sent
to Congress last month.
North Korea has pledged to extend a moratorium on intermediate- and
long-range missile tests until 2003. North Korea is regarded as the leading
missile exporter to the Middle East, Middle East Newsline reported.
"Emerging ballistic missile states continue to increase the range,
reliability and accuracy of the missile systems in their inventories Ñ posing ever greater risks to U.S. forces, interests, and allies throughout
the world," the intelligence report, released on Wednesday, said.
Proliferation of technology, materials and expertise Ñ especially by
Russian, Chinese and North Korean entities Ñ "has enabled emerging missile
states to accelerate missile development, acquire new capabilities, and
potentially develop even more capable and longer range future systems."
The National
Intelligence Estimate did not record any revisions in previous assessments
of the missile threats from the three countries.
The report said Iran continues to develop an intercontinental ballistic
missile that can also launch satellites. The CIA said Iran could launch such
a missile within a few years although it suggested a dispute between U.S.
intelligence agencies. The chief suppliers of missile technology to Iran
were China, North Korea and Russia.
"All agencies agree that Iran could attempt a launch in mid-decade," the
report, which covers the last half of 2000, said, "but Teheran is likely to
take until the last half of the decade to flight test an ICBM/SLV. One
agency further believes that Iran is unlikely to conduct a successful test
until after 2015."
The agencies that contributed to the national intelligence estimate
include the CIA, the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency, the White
House-aligned National Security Agency, the State Department intelligence
division and military intelligence units.
Regarding Iraq, the U.S. report said the regime of President Saddam
Hussein is focusing on improving its short-range missile arsenal. But
Baghdad is preparing to resume development of intermediate-range missiles
once United Nations sanctions are lifted.
"All agencies agree that Iraq could test different ICBM concepts before
2015 if UN prohibitions were eliminated in the next few years," the report
said. "Most agencies, however, believe it is unlikely to do so, even if the
prohibitions were eliminated."
The report also said Iraq is far from completing a nuclear weapon. "The
intelligence community estimates that Iraq, unconstrained, would take
several years to produce enough fissile material to make a weapon," the
report said.
The CIA said the missile capability of Iran, Iraq and North Korea dwarfs
that of Russia. The report said Russia's nuclear missile arsenal will
decrease to fewer than 2,000 warheads by 2015.
