Plans by the Bush administration to topple the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would
not improve the prospect for democracy in the Middle East, a new report
says.
"Even if the United States ousted Saddam Hussein and vigorously pursued
political reform in the region, democratic results would be highly
unlikely," the report, entitled "Democratic Mirage in the Middle East,"
said.
Even if the campaign suceeds, democratic reforms could have a negative impact on the region, the liberal, Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace asserted.
The report warned of the damaging consequences of democracy to the
Middle East. It said Islamic fundamentalist movements would immediately gain
from democratic elections and once in power could abolish civil and human
rights, Middle East Newsline reported.
"Truly free and fair elections in any country of the Middle East would
likely assure Islamist parties a substantial share of the vote, or possibly
even a majority, as would have happened in Algeria in 1992 had the elections
not been cancelled," the report said. "Democratization ironically raises the
possibility of bringing to power political parties that might well abrogate
democracy itself."
The report said that Arabs around the region would not clamor for democracy in
wake of the destruction of the Saddam regime. Any democratic
regime imposed on Baghdad would not inspire similar trends in neighboring
countries.
"Such a policy would certainly shake up the region, but the final
outcome in each country would owe much more to domestic factors than to the
vigor of U.S. and European reformist zeal."
The report said the United States, which has already spent $250 million
on pro-democracy programs, would require massive intervention and funding to
promote regime change in the Middle East. Such a cost would be high amid the
rapid population growth in the region.
"Moreover, countries of the Middle East do not benefit from a positive
'neighborhood effect,' the regional, locally grown pressure to conform that
helped democratize Latin America," the report said. "On the contrary, norms
in the Middle East encourage repressive, authoritarian regimes."
The report said Arabs view the Bush administration's promotion of
democracy as a "convenient justification" for U.S. intervention in Iraq and
the Israeli reoccupation of the West Bank. The United States has also been
regarded as the key supporter of Arab autocracies, thus further reducing
Washington's credibility.
"The United States should promote democracy in the Middle East
recognizing that quick change is a mirage," the report said. "The goals must
be initially modest, and the commitment to change long term."
