The United States is likely to defeat Iraq within six
weeks in a war that will see the rapid collapse of the regime of President
Saddam Hussein, a U.S. expert said.
Anthony Cordesman, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for
Strategic and International Studies, presented this assessment during a
conference that reviewed scenarios for a U.S. conflict with Baghdad.
Cordesman, a former senior U.S. defense official, said the most likely prospect is that Saddam would be incapable of
significant resistance or use of his weapons of mass destruction arsenal.
[On Tuesday, the London-based Al Quds Al Arabi reported that Iraq's
military has been deployed around strategic facilities and areas of the
country, Middle East Newsline reported. The newspaper quoted Iraqi officials as saying that war with the
United States was inevitable and that Baghdad could use WMD against invading
U.S. forces.]
Cordesman told the CSIS conference on Iraq on Nov. 12 that the most
likely scenario is a U.S. and British land-air offensive that begins with an
intensive air campaign that targets WMD facilities and forces as well as
command centers, major communications systems. He said the suppression of
surface-based air defenses will be a leading priority.
Britain and the United States will deploy at least three heavy division
equivalents ready to move through Kuwait, plus extensive light forces and
attack and assault helicopter forces, Cordesman said. He said special forces
will enter Iraq early in the air campaign to help suppress Iraqi missile
launches and seize air bases.
"The U.S. will actively seek to avoid Israeli involvement by suppressing
Iraqi Scud-launch capabilities and will be prepared for chemical and
biological warfare," Cordesman said. "It will also be prepared for urban
warfare in key areas."
Cordesman said there is a 40-60 percent chance that the allies will
achieve a "quick and decisive victory in a period of four to six weeks,
without significant impediments that would seriously complicate the
situation." He said this scenario would include the collapse of the Saddam
regime, insignificant use of WMD, limited urban warfare as well as limited
civilian casualties and collateral damage.
Moreover, Cordesman envisioned that the war would not reduce global
supplies or threaten U.S. allies in the Middle East. His assessment did not
include major insurgency attacks against Britain, the United States or other
allies.
"It is obvious that this list of events looks too good to be true," he
said. "Nonetheless this scenario might reasonably unfold in general terms."
Another scenario predicted a war of between six and 12 weeks that would
involve unexpected military resistance in Iraq, including urban warfare. In
this case, Iraq would attack oil facilities and launch limited or largely
ineffective WMD attacks against U.S. troops or Israel. Cordesman said this
scenario has a probability of between 30 and 40 percent.
In what Cordesman terms the worse case, an Iraqi war would last between
90 and 180 days. This would involve significant casualties, intense urban
warfare and the loss of U.S. support at the United Nations.
In addition, Britain, Turkey, or one of the Gulf Arab ally ends its
participation in the war as Iraq damages oil facilities in the region with
WMD. Cordesman said this scenario has a five to 10 percent probability.
"While there is virtually no chance that this complete mix of events
will occur, a combination of several of these developments could occur and
produce the worse case scenario," Cordesman said.
