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Saddam's move stunned both U.S. and Israel, stalls war plans

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Friday, September 20, 2002

The White House was taken by surprise by Iraq's agreement to the return of United Nations weapons inspectors and the turn of events has apparently forced the Pentagon to delay its planned attack on Iraq until February.

Meanwhile, suicide attacks have resumed in Israel and the government of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon fears Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's move will extend Palestinian Authority's Yasser Arafat's weakening grip on power, Middle East Newsline reported.

U.S. officials said the Bush administration was stunned by Saddam's rapid response to Washington's call for the unconditional return of the weapons inspectors. The option for UN inspections was made by President George Bush in his address to the UN General Assembly last week.



By the weekend, officials said, the United States had obtained information that Saddam had already agreed to an unconditional return of the UN weapons inspectors although the term "unconditional" referred only to military locations. They said the administration obtained a draft of Iraq's letter to be delivered to the UN on Monday.

"The only thing that was perhaps a little surprising was that it [Iraq] did it so early in the process," Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday. "And the reason it did it so early in the process was because of the enormous pressure that had been generated on Iraq as a result of President Bush's speech. They were under enormous pressure and they were afraid of the consequences of their continued misbehavior."

Western diplomatic sources said Saddam's agreement for the return of UN inspectors appears to have set back Defense Department plans for an attack on Iraq. The sources said such an attack, proposed for late November or December, has been delayed until at least February.

Israeli officials said they are concerned that the decision by the United States to revert the Iraqi issue to the United Nations would result in a boost in morale as well as financial aid by Baghdad to Saddam Hussein's ally Arafat and to Palestinian militant groups. They said Saddam wants to divert UN attention from Iraq to the Palestinian issue.



"A break in the U.S. focus on Iraq would not be good for Israel," an Israeli official said. "We think Saddam will do his best to use the new breathing space to divert U.S. focus away from Iraq and toward the Palestinian issue."

[In New York, Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri said Baghdad wants to increase aid to the Palestinians. "We feel that the support we have extended has not been as high as we have hoped because of the circumstances which have curtailed our means," Sabri said.]

Pentagon officials said they were concerned that the Security Council would take at least six months until the inspections begin. They said the United States would have little control over the activities of the UN weapons inspection team, which probably would not include Americans.

"That would be something that would be decided by the UN Ñ not a happy prospect," Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told Congress on Wednesday.

A senior Bush administration official said Washington does not intend to allow Saddam to delay the return of UN weapons inspectors. The official said the United States will not rule out a military campaign against Saddam even if the inspectors return.

The senior official also said the Bush administration will not wait for months for the return of the inspectors. He said this issue has been part of the consultations with other members of UN Security Council.



"We don't believe that the time line needs to be months," the senior official said. "But one of the things that we have to assess with others on the Security Council is what the time line really should look like here. Let me just say that weapons inspectors may well be a part of the story of how you get Saddam Hussein disarmed. But the United States is withholding at this point, pending discussions and pending consultations on what means you use to disarm him."

The Israeli officials said Israel was also surprised by Saddam's agreement to the return of the weapons inspectors. The U.S. decision to revert to the Security Council was discussed by Israel's Cabinet on Wednesday. The discussion included a briefing by Defense Minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer.

"Defense Minister Ben-Eliezer said that it is for the United States to decide on this matter according to its own considerations," a Cabinet communique later said. "Israel respects the U.S. administration's decisions and while Israel identifies with the U.S. intention to strike at one of the key factors in the axis of evil in the Middle East, Israel has no direct role in this conflict and has no intention of playing such a role unless the issue is forced by an Iraqi attack."



But other officials said they could not rule out whether Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat would order an escalation of Palestinian attacks against Israel in a drive to help Saddam. They said Arafat does not want to anger President George Bush, but the Palestinian leader's close ties to Saddam has often overruled other considerations.

The officials cited calls in the Arab media in Jordan and Lebanon for suicide missions and other attacks against Israel. The campaign is being led by Hizbullah in Lebanon and Islamic opposition groups in an effort to mark two years since the start of the Israeli-Palestinian war.

Deputy Prime Minister Silvan Shalom has urged the Cabinet to expel Arafat. Shalom said the United States would understand this move, adding that Washington regards Arafat as a terrorist leader. So far, Sharon, citing Labor Party opposition, has refused.

"There would not be political fallout from this," Shalom said.

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