WASHINGTON Ñ Leading U.S. experts have told Congress that the
toppling of President Saddam Hussein will not result in the dismantling of
Iraq.
The experts told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the
likelihood of Iraq breaking up into three entities after the fall of Saddam
is unlikely. They said the Kurdish and Shi'ite minorities are not united and
value remaining in an oil-rich Iraq, Middle East Newsline reported.
"It is very unlikely, indeed inconceivable, that Iraq will break up into
three relatively cohesive components Ñ a Kurdish north, a, Shiia south and
an Arab Sunni center," Phebe Marr: a former professor at the National
Defense University and longtime government expert on the Middle East, said.
"None of these
communities is homogeneous or shows any ability to unite."
Ms. Marr said that many Iraqi cities have a mixture of ethnic and
religious groups. They include Baghdad, Basra, Irbil and Mosul and its
Kurdish residents have concluded that their chances of an independent state
in northern Iraq are nil. She said Shi'ites in southern Iraq have much less
desire to form an independent entity.
Rend Rahim Francke, a founding member of the Iraq Foundation, agreed.
She said both Kurds and Shi'ites want a larger role in a united Iraq, with
its tremendous economic potential.
"Iraq will not fall apart and will not be dismembered," Ms. Francke
said. "The Kurds have spared no words or effort in explaining and stressing
that they want to remain part of Iraq. The Shi'ia, far from wishing to
secede, see themselves as quintessential Iraqi patriots. But what both of
these groups want is a bigger role in Iraq, a bigger role in Baghdad and in
the center of government, not separation from Iraq."
But the experts warned of chaos following the elimination of the Saddam
regime. They said revenge attacks against those linked to the ousted regime
would take place throughout the country unless a firm leadership is
installed in Baghdad.
Ms. Marr, who called for initial U.S. administration of Iraq, also
warned that the Kurds could seize Kirkuk, a major oil-producing region, and
establish "a new reality in the north." She said southern Iraq could be
flooded by thousands of Shi'ites returning from Iran.
"While most Iraqis do want the unity and territorial sovereignty of
their state, their sense of identity as a nation has eroded under the Baath,
and in my view is weaker than at any time since 1945," Ms. Marr said.
