TEL AVIV Ñ The Bush administration must move to directly encourage
the replacement of the Islamic regime in Iran after any U.S.-led war in
Iraq, a new report said.
The report, prepared by leading American strategist Max Singer for an
Israeli conference, said the war against Iraq and the subsequent campaign
against Iran are required to neutralize the damage of militant
Islam. Singer, a consultant for the U.S. Defense Department and founder of
the Hudson Institute, warned that without a sustained U.S. campaign militant
Islam could take over the entire Arab world.
"The first measure is to remove Saddam Hussein from power and to turn
over Iraq to a civilian provisional government organized by the Iraqi
National Congress," said the report, termed "Alternative Scenarios for the
Middle East in 2020" and presented to the Herzliya Conference that took
place earlier this month.
"Until Saddam is replaced the United States will
not have enough influence seriously to reduce terrorism or to discourage the
growth of militant Islam. The second measure, which is simultaneous with the
others, is for the United States to give verbal support to the democratic
opposition to the government of Iran, and to informally encourage someone to
provide this opposition with communication and other non-military
equipment ø while avoiding any U.S. signals of accommodation with the
current government. If within a year after the fall of Saddam this does not
result in the replacement of the current government, the United States would
need to consider further measures."
Singer provided five scenarios for the future of what he termed militant
Islam. They range from a democratic Middle East to a region
dominated by Islamic fundamentalist regimes with nuclear weapons.
The report said the key was U.S. intervention in Iran and Iraq. It said
the replacement of totalitarian regimes that sponsor Islamic insurgency
groups would lead to democratic regimes in other parts of the Middle East.
"It is vigorous developments in the direction of modernization led by
Iraq and Iran that are involved in the failure of militant Islam," the
report said. "By contrast, it is the power of repressive and conservative
governments that are the main dampeners of support for militant Islam. The
result is that the Middle East continues to present the bleak landscape of
political stagnation and conflict that we see today."
The report said the United States must also move against the regime of
Syrian President Bashar Assad. Singer, who helped author studies for the
Pentagon on the Soviet Union and the future of Russia, called on Washington
to press for the withdrawal of the estimated 25,000 Syrian troops from
Lebanon and the establishment of an independent government in Beirut. The
goal should be the toppling of the Assad regime.
"While the United States should diplomatically make it clear that it is
prepared to use force to remove Syrian troops from Lebanon, there is
virtually no chance that after Saddam has been removed Syria will reject a
U.S. demand that its forces leave Lebanon," the report said.
From Syria, Singer said, the United States must demand the expulsion of
groups deemed as terrorists from such Middle East states as Libya, Sudan,
Syria and Yemen. The report said Washington must demand the unconditional
and immediate end of the harboring of such groups.
"If any government does resist the United States must act against that
government until it complies or falls, avoiding any compromises that make it
appear that we are reluctant to pay the price required to get our way," the
report said. "It may be appropriate to carry out this measure one country at
a time -- but then each country should be allowed only one or a few months
to comply before action is taken. Sudan is especially vulnerable because of
its use of slavery."
The last Middle East target of the United States should be Saudi Arabia,
the report said. Singer called on the Bush administration to press Riyad to
end Saudi financing of Wahabi activities abroad. At the same time,
Washington must focus on the Shi'ite population of eastern Saudi Arabia and
eventually press for a separate Shi'ite state.
After these steps, the report said, the Middle East will be ready for a
genuine attempt to resolve the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.
Singer said the key elements of any solution is the settlement of refugees,
the ban on terrorism, the promotion of Palestinian democracy and pluralism
and Israeli security.
"If despite all these measures militant Islam continues to be strong
enough to be able to carry out more than an occasional terror attack on the
United States," the report said, "despite the removal of all currently
recognized terrorist organizations from every country, then the United
States would need to take measures to make Middle East governments
understand that if there are terror attacks on the United States, and a
government is not able to convince the U.S. government that the terrorists
had no connection with its country, the United States will take steps toward
its replacement. Most of the governments have internal enemies and are of
doubtful legitimacy, so the United States is likely to be able to find some
appropriate way to act against any government that is not careful to make
sure that its territory and facilities are not used by terrorists who attack
the United States."
