WASHINGTON Ñ The State Department has broken away from a U.S.
intelligence community consensus on Iran's emerging long-range missile
threat.
The Bureau of Intelligence and Research, the intelligence unit of the
State Department, has disputed the assessment of 12 other agencies in the
intelligence communities regarding Iran's missile capabilities. The State
Department unit has assessed that Iran will take much longer than the
majority assessment to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile and
will be deterred from testing it. A similar assessment concerned a satellite
launch vehicle.
Officials said this was the first time that the bureau was allowed to
present a dissenting assessment in the National Intelligence Estimate. An
unclassified version of the NIE released on Jan. 9 reports the intelligence
dispute over Iran but does not list the agencies involved.
"All agencies agree that Iran could attempt to launch an ICBM/SLV about
mid-decade, although most agencies believe Iran is likely to take until the
last half of the decade to do so," the report said. "One agency further
judges that Iran is unlikely to achieve a successful test of an ICBM before
2015."
The State Department also disputed an assessment regarding Iran's
nuclear weapons program. The department's intelligence bureau concluded that
Iran would not be able to complete a nuclear weapon until around 2015.
"The intelligence community judges that Iran does not yet have a nuclear
weapon," the report said. "Most agencies assess that Teheran could have one
by the end of the decade, although one agency judges it will take longer.
All agree that Iran could reduce this time frame by several years with
foreign assistance."
Officials said the State Department disagrees with the CIA over the
stages required for nuclear and missile development as well as definitions
of an ICBM. Since the 1998 presidential commission led by Donald Rumsfeld,
the CIA has concluded that rogue states require far less than five years
between the testing of a long-range missile and its deployment.
