Northeast Asia: The Law of Unforseen Consequences takes over

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

One gets the feeling that perhaps only KoizumiÕs hairdresser Ñ arenÕt they supposed to be the only real intimates of the stars? Ñ who gives him those ÒpermsÓ knows what the Japanese Prime Minister really intended when he negotiated a visit into the ogreÕs den in North Korea.

The soothsayers on all sides have been trying to fathom why he went, what Kim Jong Il, intended with the invitation, and what were the result? Why did Koizumi not warn the Americans he was going? Did the South Korean President KimÕs superspymeister Lim Dong Won get into the act? Did Koizumi think a ÒdealÓø he said he was putting his political life on the block by going ø would bolster his flagging popularity? Or did he think it would ø as it did ø at least give him a fillip with the always anti-American, anti-anti-Communist, peacenik Japanese press which, predictably, had begun to savage him? The Yomiuri did ÒproveÓ that the excursion had upped his polling figures ø although they noted that somehow they were taking the poll in a new way that couldnÕt be compared to previous polls. Or was it a cover for his ordering the Bank of Japan to buy up holdings of the commercial banksÕ stock portfolio to buoy the sagging Tokyo stock market? A move that had most financial observers gasping since at one fell swoop it demolished the theory that the BOJ had become an independent actor, that the old pre-Bubble manipulations were dead, that TokyoÕs market was any less a casino than it had always been. And if so, why didnÕt his finance minister follow with the long-awaited unpopular bailout of the banksÕ nonperforming debt ø something that riles every housewife [and her postal savings account]? Why didnÕt Chinese President Jiang Zemin come to the Ôphone when Koizumi called? In the toilet? Or preoccupied with the continuing succession struggle in Beijing and whether he could, would, should offer President Bush some new deal when they meet in Crawford next month? Did President Bush really say he was happy Koizumi had gone? If so, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, John R. Bolton, who made another hell fire and brimstone speech in Japan about North Korean proliferation, didnÕt seem to know. And if the Japanese prime minister really did use that phrase Òto suffer the unsufferableÓ speaking of Iraq ø a phrase familiar from Emperor HirohitoÕs call for surrender in World War II ø in his talk with President Bush, what did he mean? YadayadayadayaÉ

Given the intricacies of Japanese politics, the nature of the North Korean regime [super-Stalinism], and the always-conflicting diaries of diplomats and politicians, some if not most of these questions may never be answered.

But already several unpredicted results are rolling in:

The Japanese public, while apparently generally endorsing the attempt to defuse what since a missile suddenly flew over them in 1998 has been their most serious foreign policy concern, are furious that the North Koreans have given no adequate explanation for their countrymenÕs disappearance. Nor is anyone too happy about the fact that Japanese politicians have played a shell game about their knowledge of their status recalling similar snafus over American MIAs. Furthermore, some of the Japanese press suggests that there are many, many more kidnap victims than Kim apologized for ø some 25 years late as it turns out. In any case, as Korean defectors have said, KimÕs attempt to lay the blame off on overzealous intelligence/military cadre isnÕt going to stand since he is known to have had a guiding role in state terrorist activities even before his father passed from the scene.

If a massive government-to-government aid program ø reparations for JapanÕs bitter 50-year occupation of Korea before World War II ø was supposed to please the Liberal-Democratic PartyÕs business constituency, it may now have gone a glimmering. Furthermore, the North Korean apology to the Japanese has stirred things up a bit in South Korea where President Kim Dae Jung had hoped a Japanese-North Korean movement toward normalization would help his anointed heir continue his Òsunshine policyÓ toward the North. Now South Koreans want at least an apology for the thousands of their relatives abducted during the Korea War and at least 500 who have disappeared since In Tokyo, members of the Prime MinisterÕs entourage are now denying that Kim told Koizumi that he would permit international inspection of the former nuclear weapons facilities, an important sticking point in BushÕs list of grievances against what he called an ÒevilÓ regime. Nor is the wording of the promise that any further testing of the North Korean missiles program until January 2003 seem all that solid. That hairdresser may get an earful at the next curling.