Kashmir: Shibboleths, diplomats, and terrorists light a fuse

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Elections are, of course, the lifeblood of representative government, and, therefore, of democracy in our time. But to use them as a cure-all in aggravated international situations is to believe in the tooth fairy.

ÒElections alone ... cannot resolve the problems between India and Pakistan nor can they erase the scars of so many years of strife," U.S. Secretary of State Powell said when he visited the subcontinent back in the summer. "Elections, however, can be a first step in a broader process that begins to address Kashmiri grievances and leads India and Pakistan back to dialogue," he said.

Powell could not have been more wrong. Not to have anticipated that elections for a new state government in Indian Kashmir was not only not a way toward progress in resolving the basic disputes between New Delhi and Islamabad, but not understanding that they would ignite further violence hints that Washington is over its head in the problems of the subcontinent.

This is written, as the month-long elections are about to begin. The American media, caught up in the debate over Iraq, have virtually ignored the rapidly escalating new and ugly violence. The official tally in the six weeks since the electioneering began is 400 killed ø probably an understatement. The stateÕs minister of law has been assassinated. New levels of bestiality have been reached ø torture and beheading of a young woman because the Islamicist terrorists thought she was an informer for Indian security forces.

The tip-off that the worst could be expected came in May when the moderate voice in the separatist All-Parties Hurriyat Conference Abdul Gani Lone was shot dead by unidentified gunmen in Srinagar, a day ahead of the visit of Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Kashmir valley.

As Deputy Sec. of State Richard A. Armitage, visiting the region, said: Ò...there are jehadis [terrorists dedicated to ending Indian control] that are outside the control of the Pakistani authority. There are also jehadis that were already existent in Kashmir. They donÕt need to cross the Line Of Control to cause trouble.ÕÕ He said a bilateral dialogue between India and Pakistan was possible if Assembly elections in Jammu-Kashmir were allowed to be peaceful. But with thousands of suspected militants already holed up inside Indian Kashmir before Musharraf made a pledge to the Americans to restrain infiltration from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir [whether or not he could or would do that] militant attacks have continued.

Armitage said,ÔÔThey (India) have said that if the elections could proceed free of violence from Pakistan, then they would entertain a dialogue. President Musharraf, for his part, told me that his governmentÕs position was to condemn violence during any electoral seasonÓ. Yet it was predictable conditions were not ripe for free elections: the presence of half a million Indian security forces ø reinforced with poorly trained paramilitaries for the elections, the infiltration of al Qaeda remnants from Afghanistan into tribal areas of Pakistan bordering Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, the well-publicized renegade elements in PakistanÕs ISS intelligence services aiding and abetting the violence, a history since 1988 of infiltration across the line of control, and the refusal of New Delhi to put the elections under official international observation/control.

A new prestigious non-official Indian Kashmir Committee had cautioned against elections, at least until governorÕs rule [federal control] had been instituted in the state and some modicum of stability returned. Kashmir separatist leader Shabir Shah said the Indian government should have initiated talks with Kashmiri groups first to decide the territory's future before announcing elections. "The question of our taking part in the elections simply does not arise. We have been saying that a meaningful dialogue must be started first.Ó That meant you were repeating the notoriously corrupt elections of 1996 with little or no participation by the separatists.

It is impossible to exaggerate the intrigue as well as the violence. For decades New Delhi has propped up the corrupt government of the ruling Abdullah family. A S Dulat, a former head of the Research and Analysis Wing [RAW], as notorious as the Pakistan ISS, tried to ÒcultivateÓ the separatists. Some Indian officials insist he would have "achieved some breakthrough" if not for Lone's murder and "a couple of other developments".

Washington has, in effect, committed itself to mediate the Kashmir conflict as part of the Indo-Pakistan now nuclear-loaded feud without an Òexit strategyÓ. Yet the issue is critical. Pakistan President MusharrafÕs embattled position depends on it since he insists not Pakistan leader can abandon the Kashmir solution as a first step toward any accommodation with India.. IndiaÕs Prime Minister Atal Vajpayee increasingly under pressure from Hindu chauvinists in his own party not to give on Kashmir or other issues affecting 150 million Indian Moslems, still pledges to resist any international mediation. A fuse has been lit.