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A SENSE OF ASIA

Taiwan: a tale of democracy


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By Sol Sanders
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Sol W. Sanders

August 12, 2002

Americans would like to believe representative government [and economic development]solves all international problems. Alas! the current flap over Taiwan

President Chen Shui-bianÕs pronouncements on the future of his 35 million people give the lie to that panacea.

In early August, reacting to what he called ÒbullyingÓ by Beijing with its billion plus population, Chen announced he would push legislation to hold a referendum on TaiwanÕs future. It Ôs fundamental to his Democratic Progressive PartyÕs program, whose access to power marks the first peaceful transfer of power in ChinaÕs long and troubled history.

ChenÕs DPP never challenged that they are Chinese. [Beijing was digging out his ancestral tablets in neighboring Fukien from whence his family immigrated in the 18th century to prove that he had betrayed his heritage]. But the DPPÕs base is the IslandÕs ÒnativeÓ population. Resident when a million and half refugees arrived with Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek in 1949 after his Kuomintang Party lost the civil war. And like most Taiwanese, he wants neither union with the bastardized Communist kleptocracy nor its military boot.

Chen may not be as polished as some of his KMT predecessors, but it seems unlikely he did not anticipate rumblings in Beijing and Washington. His calculations must have included that the bitter succession fight would paralyze China where President Jiang Zemin refuses to abide by the mandatory 70-retirement rule, a laudatory effort to end the worldÕs most notorious gerontocracy. And with a 100-man pro-Taiwan caucus recently formed in the House of Representatives, a reiteration of the Taiwan Relations Act promising self-determination when Carter recognized Beijing, BushÕs abandonment of ClintonÕs Òstrategic ambiguityÓ for a flat statement Ñ that Washington would do whatever necessary to prevent a takeover by force Ñ Chen was in pretty safe territory.

Probably more important, in the face of a recession in TaiwanÕs electronics industry, among the worldÕs most important, Chen simultaneously approved a new policy permitting local chip manufacturers to invest on the Mainland. And he opened up Taiwan real estate to investment. Again, self-government will out. And TaiwanÕs industrialists, like their American counterparts who have sold critical armaments high tech to Beijing, have put enormous sums [as much as $100 billion] in an effort to exploit vast cheap labor on the Mainland to meet growing ÒglobalizationÓ. There is, too, the lure of those Mainland consumers, a chimera foreign merchants have been chasing since Marco Polo.

Never mind that Taiwan Vice President, the poisoned tongued Anette Lu, has repeatedly warned Beijing would wield leverage through this kind of growing commercial relationship. [A quarter of TaiwanÕs exports flow to China, largely through Hong Kong presently but there is strong agitation for direct trade.].

Chen apparently made a good bet: the Mainland reaction, while loud, was not a firing of missiles [as it has been in the past], from the growing batteries opposite the Island. While BeijingÕs propaganda mill ground out the usual Communist denunciations predicting ChenÕs path would lead to disaster, no prominent Chinese politician pontificated.

In fact, there was more of a reaction in Washington [turning away from its own contradictory statements about ÒIraqÓ momentarily]. The usual suspects were rounded up: the liberal media quoted anonymous sources saying the U.S. might have to rethink the Bush AdministrationÕs repeated promises to arm Taiwan against any potential Mainland attack. The State Dept.Õs No. 1 weightlifter summoned the delightful Dr Tsai Ing-wen, chairman of TaiwanÕsMainland Affairs Council, for a dressing down.[Marvelous how fashionable American leftwing feminists ignore the presence of large numbers of women in Taiwan officialdom and their absence in Beijing]. A member of the National Security Council reiterated the U.S. opposes Taiwan independence, that it maintains the fiction of Òone ChinaÓ, and that everyone knows what the American policy is [!]

Chen, meanwhile, in the tradition of democratic politicians caught in a hassle, did the necessary. Two days after his speech, he ducked, canceling some military exercises to prove TaiwanÕs peaceful intentions. But by the end of the week, he met with a part of his constituency to reaffirm TaiwanÕs de facto independence in the face of any intended intimidation[but no mention of when and how the referendum would be held]. Still, he laid down a new challenge with backup from former President Lee Teng-hui [Bush doesnÕt often get that kind of backup when he has to swerve and dodge], who split the old KMT and permitted the DPP to come to power.

Of course, down the road not so far, Chen faces national legislative elections øand that might just have something to do with all this hoohaha. Churchill said it well: representative government is a pretty messy way to run a country [woops! is Taiwan a country?] But it is the best one, he said, that he knew.

Sol W. Sanders, (solsanders@comcast.net), is an Asian specialist with more than 25 years in the region, and a former correspondent for Business Week, U.S. News & World Report and United Press International. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

August 12, 2002

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