Powell's Trip: Pongee stakes at every stop

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Only Solomonic wisdom could produce beneficial results for Sec. of State Colin PowellÕs southern Asia tour begining July 26th. Not only is the news bad almost everywhere, but growing U.S. commitment has to be a principle concern. At every stop parties to a difficult conflict ask for increased American participation. It is the clichŽ of clichŽs that U.S. power is now overarching worldwide. But with that prestige comes increasing demands for WashingtonÕs attention. It is perhaps not so much a question of physical resources Ñ although that certainly will be at issue ø but the allocation of brainpower.

In the Subcontinent, India has held mediation and arbitration unacceptable. Nevertheless, Pakistan is insistent the U.S. play a role. And, in fact, willy-nilly, the Indians have acceded to Washington as a ÒfacilitatorÓ. But on the eve of PowellÕs arrival there has been another bloody slaughter. Terrorists posed as Hindu sadhus [holy men] in that part of the Kashmir state [Jammu] with a Hindu majority. It follows weeks of bloody communal strife in Gujarat.

The U.S.Õ paramount interest, of course, is to prevent another war. But the unspoken concern is an accidental nuclear exchange given the movement of the Indian government towards its Hindu hawks and growing concern over PakistanÕs Gen.-President MusharrafÕs control PakistanÕs fanatical Moslems. There was an attempt to kill European archaeological tourists in the Pakistan Himalayas at the same time as the Jammu massacre. If al Qaeda is still functioning, as U.S. authorities believe, their principle aim at the moment could be to fuel the communal fires in the Subcontinent.

Having solved the Indo-Pakistan problem, Powell goes on to Thailand. There is growing concern over the KingÕs health, that mysterious figurehead who descends his Hindu-Buddhist throne from time to time to sort out the squabbling of the Sino-Thai business elite and the ethnic Thai military. Again, the chief American concern has to be the five Moslem provinces in the south bordering Malaysia ø a perfect haven for al Qaeda to set up shop [as remnants of the Malaysian Communists did in the 1960s].

In Malaysia, Powell will meet a new government after a promise of Mohammed Mahathir to give up power after 35 years. Abdullah, the incoming prime minister is the opposite of the flamboyant Mahathir. He faces the growing challenge of Islamacists already in power in two states who have thrown down the gauntlet to the federal government by attempting to institute sharia [Koranic law]. Former deputy prime minister Anwar has lost his last appeal against charges of corruption and pederasty with which Mahathir abandoned him ø and his program of reforms after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Whether Abdullah can move in that direction in his own way and time may decide Malaysian stability.

Singapore, still in shock after discovering an al Qaeda plot under the noses of its notoriously efficient police, has taken tentative liberalization steps. Senior Minister Lee Kwan Yew has had to acknowledge that hi tech industry was jeopardized by a ÒnannyÓ government that sent young Singaporeans packing to Australia, Canada, and the U.S.. The al Qaesa plot, however, has again reinforced the obvious: although SingaporeÕs prosperity is in part based on the difficulties of its neighbors, it would eventually fall victim to further regional destabilization.

Nowhere will U.S. decision-making be more acute for Powell than in Indonesia. There a do-nothing president, Megawatti, is trying to reign rather than rule with decisionmaking postponed on every issue ø save one: Aceh. Guerrilla forces in the northern tip of Sumatra, rich in oil and gas, with a tradition of defying central government, refuses to accept anything short of independence. Many ø especially the military ø see AcehÕs breakaway as the beginning of the end of Indonesia. But a bloody repression which military leaders promise daily, and which failed in the past, would make it difficult for the U.S. to reestablish close relations with the military seen as the countryÕs main unifying force.

The nominal purpose of PowellÕs tour is the annual meeting of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. But with Indonesia no longer playing a dominant role [seeing the alliance as a shield against Communist China], having admitted two corrupt economic cripples, Vietnam and Burma, and having virtually abandoned its founding role of economic integration, the Secretary wonÕt get much surcease.

Only in Manila, where President Arroyo appears, at least momentarily, to have bested her nationalist enemies opposed to collaboration with Washington is there an upbeat note. Philippines forces have dealt a body blow to one Moslem gangster band. But the larger issue of Moslem nationalism still remains unresolved. Whether its off and own ties to LibyaÕs Qadaafi and al Qaeda will blossom remains a question. Meanwhile, the U.S. commitment for training is quietly growing.

For that old Vietnam veteran, the Secretary, a realistic appraisal will not be very comforting. Nor will it encourage the veteran Washington insider for whom avoiding poisoned bamboo stakes at the bottom of foreign traps has always been uppermost.