Bush's North Korea options

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

President Bush arrives in Seoul under fire from friend and foe for including North Korea in his “evil axis” accusation. Pyongyang canceled a visit, scheduled almost simultaneously, of three former U.S. ambassadors to South Korea, which some had hoped – despite denials – was a “good cop, bad cop” Washington gambit.

Though friendly critics pose caveats accepting the “evil” nature of the regime, it may still be worth recalling again that North Korea over the last half century was the model for state sponsored terrorism:

Of course, there was the Korean War, initiated because Sec. of State Acheson tried, however clumsily, to put the Peninsula beyond the emerging Cold War, leading Pyongyang [and Stalin] to misconstrue it as an opportunity for Communist reunification. Over the years, the world has almost become numbed to North Korea’s provocations – the attempted assassination of South Korean President Park [his wife was killed], the kidnapping of Korean movie stars in Japan, the murder of the South Korean cabinet making a state visit in Rangoon, the butchering of UN/US soldiers in brawls at the DMZ, the endless terrorists’ attempts to infiltrate, participation in Mexico’s 1968 student riots, aid lent to the Japanese Red Army [its massacre at Israel’s Lod airport], etc., etc.

Some, who know this history well, would argue, nevertheless Pyongyang has a new man enthroned, no longer the legendary [much of the legend, of course, fabricated] Kim Il Sung but his bizarre and perhaps hapless son, Kim Jong Il. The Cold War is over. China, North Korea’s only remaining ally, is working for a more “normal” regime. North Korea’s conventional military might on which the regime rests is deteriorating rapidly just as South Korea’s is probably appreciating. The economy is bankrupt, increasingly dependent on foreign food aid. Pyongyang, they would argue, has no alternative but to seek a negotiated settlement – one for which President Kim Dae Jung in the South has made every effort. Bush, they say, made a grave mistake by his strong confrontational line.

We cannot know all the information that faced the President in evaluating the situation. But what is “in the open” is very strong for a counter argument: First, of course, has the regime basically changed? In the past few years as many as a million North Koreans, perhaps double that, have starved because a quarter of its GDP goes to the military, 60% of the workforce is engaged in heavy industry, mostly munitions.

And if, as Bush’s American critics agree, our first priority is to defend the U.S. against terrorism – not just from the Al Qaeda remnants – must we not stand by our threat to consider those states which aid the terrorists also as our antagonists? Terrorist support networks cross ethnic and political lines. The 1999 State Dept. international terrorism report linked Pyongyang to Osama Ben Ladin. [although there has been no public mention since]. Given that North Korean “assistance” goes as far afield as gunboats for the Tamil Tigers against the Sri Lanka government, other less publicized cross-ethnic connections would come as no surprise.

As a producer of mass destruction, Pyongyang has few peers. It is a principle missiles exporter – to Iran [as well as Syria, Libya, and Egypt]. It has been testing engines for a missile that could reach Hawaii and Alaska, with the next stage reaching all continental U.S. with a payload of several hundred kilograms. North Korea diverted sufficient plutonium for a nuclear weapon before agreeing to a largely unmonitored moratorium. Although Pyongyang signed the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, it has produced agents and toxins such as anthrax, cholera, and plague. Pyongyang has a sizeable stock of nerve, blister, choking, and blood agents despite its chemical industry’s deterioration. Just as the regime has sold missiles for profit, would sales of these stockpiles be beyond it?

South Korean President Kim Dae Jung is a lame duck, a statesman whose principle cause has been Korean reunification during a long and tortured political career. Bush had every right to fear he might make too many concessions to the North – as, indeed, the favorite among a gaggle of candidates and political parties for succession next year, Lee Hoi Chang, recently in Washington with his advisers, has publicly charged.

National Security Adviser Rice says Washington is preparing “a roadmap”, a series of “confidence building measures”, that Pyongyang could pursue to restart U.S./South Korean/Japan-North Korean negotiations. Apparently the first would be reducing the forward positioning of conventional forces along the DMZ with which Pyongyang has threatened a “sea of fire” for Seoul, a quarter of South Korea’s population within 30 miles of the DMZ.

That appears to be the door left ajar for North Korea in the hardnosed rhetoric of both sides. Given what many regard as the most threatening scene in Asia, that would seem to be a realistic approach to a dangerous enemy.