Kashmir's veil of tears
UNITED NATIONS — The disputed region of Kashmir has become a nuclear flashpoint given the dangerous face-off between the Indian and Pakistani military forces. Though tensions between these South Asian powers have eased in the wake of determined American diplomacy, Kashmir remains a focus for any flareup. Following Secretary of State Colin Powell's recent foray to the region, he cautioned he was "very encouraged that we can now find a solution to this troubling situation," which seems to reflect a dampened Indian and Pakistani enthuiasm for another round of fighting. Ominously, the results of such a conflict could be catastrophic not only for South Asia but for the world. At the onset of Indian independence from Britain in 1947, Kashmir was courted by both India and what was to become the Muslim state of Pakistan. New Delhi's claim to the storied mountainous area rests with a decision by the then-ruling Maharajah to have his people join India. Pakistan asserts that the majority Muslim region has yet to formally opt for its fate. After all, an agreed to UN-supervised plebiscite which would determine the region's future was never held. Thus the Pakistani position always demanded that this political step be taken. Sadly, especially in recent years, Pakistan has played with proverbial fire by supporting varied and sundry "liberation forces" trying to threaten and oust Hindu India's often heavy-handed rule in Kashmir. Long before the military government of General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan was already supporting these Islamic mujahideen whose credentials are close to the Taliban's. Through such actions, the Islamabad government has tarnished its cause and sullied its case. Now General Musharraf, by cracking down on these terrorists, has gone far to decompress the situation, but some of these militants have a momentum of their own and indeed may try to sabotage any peace attempts by Pakistan towards India. As the Economist opined editorially, "Musharraf aligned his country with the international mainstream, rejecting terrorism and theocracy, and excoriating those who have perverted Islam for their own ends. Five of the most notorious Islamic groups have now been banned, hundreds of their folllowers rounded up." Interestingly, the Kashmir question goes back to the early days of the United Nations. As is the case in so many issues of disputed frontiers, the issue remains obscured by time, emotion, and historical amnesia. Kashmir remains no exception. In 1948, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution establishing the UN Commission for India and Pakistan; in effect offering "good offices" to both India and Pakistan. Pursuant to another landmark resolution #47(1948), a five-nation group of Argentina, Czechoslovakia , the USA, Belgium and Canada would focus on restoring peace and the holding of a plebiscite. Observers would monitor both sides of the disputed border. The UN Military Observer group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) force whose roots date to this period, supervises the tenuous truceline between the Indian controlled part from that of Pakistan. The UN force remains along the Line of the Control with 45 observers. Significantly in 1949, the UN resumed negotiatons with both India and Pakistan regarding the implentation of Security Council resolution #47, namely authorising the vote. American Admiral Chester Nimitz, former commander of the US Pacific Fleet in WWII, was appointed by the Secretary- General as UN Plebiscite Administrator. In other words, the plebiscite was not just a rhetorical bone, nor a pro forma statement but what was expected to be a serious attempt at resolving the emerging crisis. Despite the formal ceasefire in 1949 and the subsequent 1972 Simla Agreement deliniating the Line of Control dividing the overwhelmingly Muslim region, the problem is unresolved. Kashmir remains a central mantra for political and nationalistic reasons in both Islamabad and New Delhi. Gen. Musharraf recently stated, "Kashmir runs in our blood. No Pakistani can ever sever his links with Kashmir." Naturally India has no intention of surrendering the rich region which was the focus of two previous wars. During a recent UN Security Council session on terrorism, India's delegate slammed Pakistan's proported support of guerillas in Kashmir. India is properly incessed as well about the December attack by Islamic terrorists on the Indian Parliament in New Delhi. Pakistan's delegate Shamshd Ahmad claimed that his government has taken determined actions against terrorists and counter-charged that India's "occupation" of Kashmir also made it a "perpetrator of terrorism." Why is this all so important? First, given the still unsettled situation in neighboring Afghanistan, any regional conflict would cause further chaos, population displacement, and opportunities for Al Qaeda to play in muddied waters. Second, massive troop mobilizations by both India and Pakistan have a logic of their own. In other words heated rhetoric, a culture of conflict, and intentional provocations could spark a war with nuclear exchanges. Kashmir has simmered for more than half a century and has become a veil of tears for its ten million inhabitants. It's time to start serious diplomacy again to resolve this legacy--before it's really too late. John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
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