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Thinking aloud about 2002


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By John Metzler
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

January 6, 2002

UNITED NATIONS — With a New Year upon us, an arc of crisis sweeps across much of the globe. From the Middle East to the Far East with South Asia in between, conflict churns and hatreds bubble. My politically incorrect tour d' horizon will proceed to openly discuss many diplomatic crises and potential flashpoints.

The War on Terror — is going well and the USA has used a positively brilliant strategy in mountainous Afghanistan. Namely using special forces teams working with local proxies backed up by devastating air power. The worst mistake would have been to send large scale American military forces into Afghanistan's never never land possibly to follow the fate of previous incursions (such as the Soviets). The strategy was taken out of the old counter-insurgency rule book updated for the new century. Too bad local levies of the skill, persistance, and dedication are few on the ground in Iraq.

Somewhow I feel that the Iraqi military, much like the feared Al Qaeda will buckle when faced with the stiletto precision of American and British Special Forces backed up by beaucoup airpower.

Afghanistan — President Bush is very correct to follow-up his military victory over the Taliban with an economic development program for this long forsaken land. The Afghans have suffered too much — enduring victims first of the Soviet invasion and later occupation in the 1980's. This created a climate for the militias and warlords leading ultimately to the Taliban's fundamentalism which ripped this land asunder. Work with the United Nations make the place better and deprive the terrorists of the recruiting grounds for the next jihad. Plainly, the Afghans deserve better.

Far East — Get closer to Japan and the Philippines. I give Japan's Koizumi government credit for unapoligically and militarily supporting the War Against Terror as well as having the willpower protect its national sovereignty. When the Japanese Maritime Forces intercepted, warned, and may I say had the guts to sink a poaching North Korean spy vessel, it proved that Tokyo understands it has national interests in safeguarding its soveriegnty. Given that the North Korean communists remain a regional threat, Japan was wise not to let them get away with the incident.

The Philippines, long taken for granted (and admittedly victim of its own profilgate corruption) remains a longtime friend of America and a strategic piece of real estate . While the southern Sulu islands have hosted Islamic rebels since the 1970's, it behooves the US to assist Manila in a counter insurgency campaign to damper the Islamic fires. The Philippine government deserves extra economic stabilization aid and military assistance.

Equally in the long-running China/Taiwan political imbroglio, it is incumbent on Washington not to let any enchantment with China's commercial appeal to endanger our longtime ties and relations with Taiwan. In other words, don't let the Beijing communists set the political agenda.

Russia — in the post Soviet era has seen an evolving community of interests with the USA. I hesitate to use the word ally, but the bottom line remains that President Vladimir Putin and President Bush share many political and economic objectives which can continue to widen on issues such as petroleum supply, security, and trade.

Recall that the Russians have been fighting some vicious "neo-Islamic" thugs in Chechnaya who have used terror in Russian cities. While Russian counter-insurgency tactics have often fueled the problem, the bottom line remains that, for now, Moscow and Washington share growing geopolitical interests. Still, I won't go calling President Putin "Uncle Vlad."

India/Pakistan — This standoff has everything to do with partition in 1947 on ethnic and religious (Hindu/Islamic) lines. Add a hair-trigger nuclear angle and you go beyond a possible Indo/Pak war to a nightmare scenario well beyond Bin Laden's wildest wish list. The disputed Kashmir region has smouldered for a half a century.

While India and Pakistan have gone to war three times and are again on the brink, the Bush Administration has a chance to stop what could quickly escalate into a nuclear war. India has had the bomb for a generation, Pakistan harnessed the nuclear genie just a few years ago. While Washington is right to curry favor with New Delhi, let's not forget that Pakistan does have a case on Kashmir. Back in the late 1940's the United Nations called for a Kashmir status referendum — the vote was never held.

Let me state the politically incorrect. As with many of these unsolved issues, the initial merits of the problems have been forgotten and have since been hijacked by the crazies. Pakistan is playing with fire in Kashmir and may bring very unintended results. Given the choice, and that has been genuinely lacking, the Kashmiri people would probably opt for independence from both India and Pakistan and make good on their own. Somehow I feel that these very talented and resource-rich Kashmiris don't enjoy being a political football between either India or Pakistan. (Here comes the hate mail).

I know this sounds distinctly Clintonian but there should be a Nobel Peace Prize for the Bush team in stopping an Indo/Pakistan war. Now do it.

Arab/Israeli Intifada — The Clinton Administration and Ehud Barak created the grande illusion — and likely believed it themselves — that Chairman Yassir Arafat was a reformed radical led to being reasonable. Creation of a Palestinian State would logically solve the problem...It would not. Israel confronts increasingly sophisticated insurgency/terrorism. Ararfat is a repackaged terrorist well past his prime. Israel's Ariel Sharon can't stop the violence totally even with a sledgehammer. If there were the proverbial Palestinian state tomorrow, don't bet on peace. Too many of the Palestinian factions are into graft, rackets, and political infighting (much like the IRA) and really want to keep the grisly game going. Add Hamas terrorists and you have the combustable situation where you can only control the degree of violence not totally erradicate it. President George W. Bush is wise to treat Arafat for what he is, not for what he wishes him to become. Restarting the peace process will take more than cautious handshakes.

Forgotten friends — to take more seriously — Brazil, Turkey and South Africa. Brazil remains a growing political and economic power in South America largely misunderstood by Americans. And let's cry for Argentina — how such a resource-blessed and lovely land can be so mismanaged totally befuddles me, and I presume many Argentines.

Turkey, a steadfast moderate Muslim ally has long been taken for granted. We shouldn't do this. Turkey holds the geo-political lynchpin connecting Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East. The Ankara government stands as a vital player confronting fundamentalist Islam as well as holding a potent military force facing off Saddam and Syria.

South Africa — say all you want, but South Africa realistically remains the continent's sole superpower, and a major food producer. Given regional crisis in Zimbabwe and Zambia, South Africa retains wider importance.

The Euro — The Old World has embarked on a brave new financial world, Le Figaro of Paris called it "E-Day for Europe." Yet one wonders how long the Euro will keep its luster?? Though the European Central Bank will keep the Euro artificially propped up in the early stages, and the political classes will sing the chorus to its praise, I'm confident that by next year the new currency will lose to the US dollar.

Happy New Year!

And may the Mournful bagpipes of the New York City Fire Depatment play in the background of this sordid saga.

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

January 6, 2002


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