Turkey again stands to lose for backing U.S. against Iraq
UNITED NATIONS Ñ Turkey in its vastness connects continents and cultures. The country also sits astride a geological fault line that can, at any time, cause a seismic jolt which has triggered earth shattering earthquakes. And while TurkeyÕs upcoming and hotly contested parliamentary elections are likely to produce tremors across the political Richter scales, the real aftershocks may come when Ankara offers military assistance to an impending Anglo/American military strike on SaddamÕs Iraq.
A near political maxim during the Cold War and well into the 1990Õs was that Turkey was a reliable ally in the NATO alliance, a vital part of the 1991 Gulf War, as well as a key player in various UN peacekeeping operations from the Balkans to more recently Afghanistan. As a secular Moslem state, Turkey has proven a model for many other Islamic lands, Pakistan as a case and point.
Though geography makes Turkey a vital piece on the geopolitical chessboard, the country remains entwined in an economic and political Gordian knot. The U.S. has crucial bases on Turkish territory that can and will be used to hit neighboring Iraq. And since the Turks are not Arabs, thereÕs none of the political rationalization such as the Saudis would say that they did not wish to fight a war against Òbrother ArabÓ Iraq. As a valuable strategic regional ally, the Turks will support the U.S. should there be a conflict with Iraq. Significantly, TurkeyÕs powerful military command has acquiesced to helping the Anglo/American campaign against Iraq Ñ but for a price.
.During the 1990-91 Gulf War, Turkey suffered a loss of a minimum of $40 billion in lost trade, commerce, and investments. Now some Ankara officials put the impending losses in a new Iraq conflict at $150 billion over a decade. How can a country with an anemic economy, dizzying inflation, and a weak currency sustain this loss? Five years ago while in Istanbul I recall the lira being at 250,000 to the US$; itÕs now 1,656,000! The IMF provides economic life support for Turkey.
In other words Gulf War II can be even worse to the economy, decimate a still thriving tourist industry, and possibly cause a refugee influx. Who will pay for this?
ÒTurkey being the USÕs strategic and trustworthy ally, America should be more [appreciative] of the value of Turkey both in terms of bi-lateral and geo-strategic significance,Ó advised Tahsin Ertugruloglu, Foreign Minister of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
In comments to this writer Minister Ertugruloglu added, ÒThere is no question that Turkey is of absolute significance for stability in the area as the only secular Islamic state and should be given the opportunities to that make it a role model for the rest of the Islamic world. Turkey is very valuable but I donÕt think to date Turkey has been given the respect that it deserves.Ó
On the political front, the European Union announced the list of ten countries soon to join. Hardly surprisingly, the EU did not include a date for Turkey to start accession discussions. ÒYes, we are all bitter,Ó exclaimed an editorial in the English language Turkish Daily News. Most political parties in Turkey, including Islamic ones, wish that Turkey could join the EU. Most of the Eurocrats in Brussels want to take a wait and see posture on the upcoming election, even before they will talk about possible Turkish EU membership. Despite many genuine economic and social and political reforms aimed at EU admission, Ankara was shunned and this is not lost on nationalists of many stripes.
The EUÕs snub included the double-edged dagger of Greek Cypriot admission to the EU by 2004. Thus the divided Greco/Turkish island of Cyprus is set for membership in the absence of a long elusive political settlement between the islandÕs two ethnic communities; the Turkish minority seeks to preserve its status through a loose confederal government with the majority Greeks. As TRNC Minister Ertugruloglu warned,ÒThe Greek Cypriots go into the European Union OK, but there will be costs to them and everyone should be prepared to pay.Ó
In the midst of this imbroglio has been TurkeyÕs upcoming election in early November. Endemic political corruption and bickering which affects nearly the entire spectrum has given rise to Islamic parties who preach a political clean slate. Islamic parties could well win the upcoming contest with an unstable but perhaps workable plurality. These groups are not poised to be AnkaraÕs AyatollahÕs but would nonetheless send political shockwaves throughout Europe and later the Middle East.
To this ever-changing backdrop, Washington will be well advised to show genuine political leadership to help the Turkish government untie the Gordian Knot.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
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