The Euro fudge factor
Paris Ñ As high-speed TGV trains glide across France at nearly 200 mph, offering elegance amid a near metaphysical experience of detachment, one ponders the state of this grand continent in the midst of wrangling with the issues of confronting a far off dictator. To be sure itÕs summer and the French Ñ on near collective vacances Ñ view rumblings of conflict in the Middle East as a rude interruption.
Naturally the chattering classes instinctively blame President George W. Bush for Òwanting a warÓ with Saddam Hussein whom the majority of Europeans see as no more than an unpleasant Middle Eastern thug. ItÕs not that the Europeans support Saddam Ñ though historically the business bottom line with Baghdad would seem to dispute that Ñ itÕs that any sense of urgency in dealing with him militarily seems lacking. Historically we could argue itÕs a classic strain of appeasement (dŽjˆ vu Neville Chamberlin and Daladier) or putting it charitably, that the European Union views the threat differently.
BritainÕs Tony Blair proves the most vocal supporter of action against Iraq while GermanyÕs Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has taken the low road by political posturing with shrill election-tuned swipes at the US. If thereÕs action against Iraq, FranceÕs Jacques Chirac will aid the US as during the Gulf War in 1991, if only to gain from the spoils of the settlement. Yet most public opinion throughout Euroland seems set against any military action at least until UN weapons inspectors return to Iraq for a last look (and last chance for Saddam to stall).
Prof. Andre Kaspi of the Sorbonne interviewed in FranceÕs Le Figaro newspaper opined, SaddamÕs Iraq is the apple of discord between Washington and the European capitalsÉThat the Europeans contrary to the Americans donÕt see Iraq as a problem of terrorism but an issue of the application of moral rules and military disarmament. ÒThe Europeans have a tendency to think that if the terrorism menace is against the U.S., itÕs because the U.S. has a bad policy, they are obsessed with rogue states, and have an exaggerated protection of Israel,Ó Kaspi says adding, ÒThe Europeans believe themselves to be invulnerable.Ó Why am I not surprised?
There are two separate issues Ñ Al QaidaÕs loathsome terrorism against the U.S. on September 11, 2001 and SaddamÕs iron rule over Iraq and threat to the region. While Washington waffles over Òregime changeÓ in Baghdad, the U.S. is yet to assemble many allies to add a political and diplomatic benediction to the effort.
Still itÕs simplistic to say that the U.S. has not explained the case for deposing Saddam Ñ one hears the arguments ad nauseum Ñ loose nukes and nerve gas in the hands of the Iraqi despot somehow seems causus belli enough. ItÕs just that the Euros are comfortable with fudging IraqÕs looming threat. Add this to a series of European left- wing governments (they donÕt use the word socialist too much anymore) and you have another reason why the Euros are vocally upset with les Americans and seething at Israel.
A common complaint is that the USA and Europe have drifted apart Ñ yes, in a sense, but if one recalls the early 1980Õs, there were far deeper and more dangerous rifts. At that time the West represented only one political polestar for many people Ñ the Soviets represented the other. Given the absence of a genuinely competing and confronting political system with its military threat, itÕs ever so much easier to argue.
Many on the French left love to slam George W. as a Òserial killerÓ The idea that there are executions in the USA and especially in Texas serves as a kind of bent moral weather vane by which the threat of SaddamÕs weapons of mass destruction are juxtaposed with the grande politics. Of course such nonsense and polemic tirades have oft gone mainstream reaching the wider Òblame America firstÓ crowd which has discovered a new cause celebre with WÕs presidency.
Still a new political landscape may be on the horizon Ñ upcoming elections in Germany and Turkey could well tip the political balance towards a more cooperative understanding with Washington should the USA decide to finally confront Iraq. Hopefully the Autumn will bring new circumstances to erase this summer of discontent, reinvigorate trans-Atlantic friendships, and properly focus on removing Saddam Hussein.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
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