The Dragon leers: Taiwan in the crosshairs
UNITED NATIONS Ñ The Chinese dragon is again glowering at Taiwan with the unambiguous intention to ÒreunifyÓ the free and democratic island with the communist Mainland. But whether the PeopleÕs Republic of China, the world largest surviving dictatorship, is able to seize Taiwan remains a militarily formidable and politically problematic challenge. But as a recent Pentagon report warns, the Chinese communist military is rapidly building its offensive capability and is Òeyeing Taiwan victory.Ó
ÒThe PeopleÕs Republic of ChinaÕs ambitious military modernization casts a cloud over its declared preference for resolving the differences with Taiwan through peaceful means,Ó the document states adding that BeijingÕs military modernizations, Òmay reflect the increasing willingness to consider the use of force to achieve unification.Ó The arms buildup also has destabilizing regional implications for Japan and the Philippines.
Contrary to the collective wisdom in the West, the PeopleÕs Republic of China has never renounced the use of the military option to force Free China on Taiwan under communist control. Statements of intent and crude threats against Taiwan have been conveniently or recklessly overlooked by most foreign observers who view the model of a ÒChanged ChinaÓ as the working paradigm rather than a policy option. In other words, while the PRC has allowed genuine and substantial economic changes, those reforms have reinforced the otherwise intransigent political system.
Beijing has never blurred its single-minded determination on the goal of Òreunification of the motherland.Ó
At the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, the communists captured the Mainland and the Nationalists forces retrenched to Taiwan. Thus there have been two de facto and competing governments on Chinese territory for a half century. Though arrogantly claiming title to Taiwan, the Beijing communists have never controlled the island for a single day. Taiwan is wise not to provoke the dragon on one hand or make believe it has disappeared on the other.
Though for all practical purposes the Republic of China on Taiwan is a sovereign state, any tinkering with this semantical status quo across the Taiwan Straits, can trigger a geo-political jolt which could devastate Taiwan, rattle East Asia, and pull the United States into a dangerous political vortex.
ChinaÕs military modernization is bolstered both by a robust domestic economy and by an influx of foreign exchange financed through its aggressive exports. The Pentagon report added, ÒChinaÕs leaders view the U.S. as a partner of convenience, useful for its capital, technology know-how and market.Ó
Cozy business deals between the U.S. firms and the PRC, a hallmark of the 1990Õs, the reckless high technology transfer during the Clinton era, and still gaping wide open American market for Chinese communist exports has bolstered BeijingÕs economic power and currency coffers. Foreign exchange reserves estimated at $ 231 billion (PRC ruled Hong Kong adds an additional $112 billion) allows BeijingÕs Marxist Mandarins a serious shopping spree in global arms markets as well as perhaps more dangerously bolstering intelligence collection capabilities and domestic defense R&D. Currently, the PRC defense budget is estimated at $65 billion.
Beijing has signed a $4 billion weapons deal with Russia, which will buy additional Sovremenny class destroyers, eight Kilo-class submarines, and 40 Su-30 fighter bombers. Enhancing its submarine capabilities puts the PRC in the position to blockade Taiwan ports and trade lifeline, and menacingly challenge the U.S. Navy in the Pacific. Moreover China has 350 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan which are clearly aimed at psychological pressures and destabilization.
U.S. defense weapons sales to Taiwan stress anti-submarine capabilities, air superiority, and enhanced electronic the defense capacity.
The PRCÕs upcoming 16th Communist Party congress in September, may set the agenda not only for BeijingÕs new leadership lineup, but for ÒresolvingÓ the Taiwan Question as well.
Since the September 11th terrorist attacks on America, the PRC has played a very clever game by overtly supporting WashingtonÕs political objectives against radical Islam (a threat to PRC interests too), building consensus in the UN Security Council, but at the same time expanding its military under the radar of media attention. While Washington is wise to seek BeijingÕs cooperation on Middle Eastern issues, we canÕt allow this at the expense of our interests in the Far East.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
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