Korean weather Ñ Storm clouds mixed with sunny intervals
UNITED NATIONS Ñ The political weather along the divided Korean peninsula has changed from sunny and warm to stormy and cloudy as an unpredicted front moved in from the West Sea. From the rosy and optimistic predictions after the historic South/North Sunshine Summit in June 2000, conditions have now been clouded over by regional geo-political realities.
The serious naval clash between intruding North Korean patrol boats and South Korean vessels highlighted the fragile nature of the 1953 truce which formally ended the Korean conflict. While North Korean units were likely probing southern territorial waters and probably got caught, the fact remains in the ensuing skirmish, four South Korean sailors were killed and another 30 wounded. North Korean losses were high too.
The curious incident came as South Korea was celebrating the final stages of its successfully hosted World Cup. Given that the South Korean Team had earned a place in the finals, even North Koreans felt a pride for their cousins despite the political divide at the 38th parallel. Speculation that the North Koreans were trying to spoil the party for South Korea are dubious. If the oft reckless communist North had wished to disrupt the games, they could have easily staged incidents like this over the month long World Cup events easily fostering a climate of insecurity and unease especially among foreign visitors.
The bloody incident occurred when the World Cup was winding down Ñ despite a key match scheduled in South Korea, the main attention was clearly focused on the Final Brazil/Germany game in Yokohama, Japan.
South Korean President Kim Dae-jung, in Japan for the World Cup Finals, met with JapanÕs Premier Junichiro Koizumi to discuss the delicate diplomatic situation and obtained TokyoÕs backing for continued political engagement with Pyongyang.
But what does the secretive Stalinist regime in Pyongyang really have to gain? With democratic elections slated for South Korea in December, such incidents only discredit the doves in Seoul among them current President Kim Dae-jung who has really put his reputation on the line for whatÕs called Sunshine Policy. Intra/Korean detente has earned Kim a Nobel Prize, the policy has generally benefited the isolated North and de-demonized PyongyangÕs heinous political regime.
Still it appears that the incident may have been triggered by factions in Kim Jong-ilÕs murky leadership or security apparatus who fear any warming of ties with its Southern Korean cousins or indeed better relations with arch-enemy the USA.
As this writer opined in June 2000, ÒWhether the historic Sunshine Summit ushers in a warm front melting down the political frozen reaches of the Korean peninsula and brings about a political Tsunami swamping the North Korean regimeÉor will there be a dizzying socio/ political euphoria over a Òchanged Ò North which will lead to dangerous misperceptions in Seoul, Washington and Tokyo?Ó
SeoulÕs Korea Times adds, ÒThere is no denying that under the Sunshine Policy, the sense of national security and military discipline have unfortunately relaxed, and as a result, crisis management has been affected.Ó The Times added, ÒField commanders tend to be torn between their mission and the governmentÕs pro-Pyongyang political line. In a sense, the ill fated sailors are victims of conflicting stances.Ó
The mixed merits of Sunshine policy will overshadow South KoreaÕs upcoming Presidential elections; opposition contender Lee Hoi-chang of the Grand National Party views the policy in less than luminary terms.
WhatÕs AmericaÕs stake in this? Korea forms the nexus of competing and oft- conflicting large power interests in East Asia. Beyond the politically aggressive and wild card nature of the North Korean communists, thereÕs the wider threat from PyongyangÕs limited nuclear weapons and missile delivery capabilities. Given that the quaintly titled Democratic PeopleÕs Republic of Korea (DPRK) has along with Islamic Iran and Iraq earned charter membership in the Bush AdministrationÕs Axis of Evil, one must view the North with untainted realism while at the same time trying to defuse the proverbial bomb.
The US/ROK defense treaty commits Washington to South KoreaÕs defense; 37.000 American troops are presently stationed in South Korea.
The Bush Administration has temporarily postponed an American mission to visit Pyongyang to revive frozen political discussions between the US and the DPRK. President Bush is wise to allow flexible realism be the guide rather than pandering to PyongyangÕs unpredictable dictatorship.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
See current edition
of
   |
