 Political earthquake jolts France
UNITED NATIONS — A political earthquake has jolted France and shaken the political foundations of the Fifth Republic. Though the aftershocks continue in the media and the cafés, the fact remains that the Presidential race's surprising second place finish of far rightist candidate Jean Maire Le Pen, has rivited the very roots of France. The leftist newspaper Libération screamed, "The electoral Hold Up of the Century!" But, let's look logically beyond the white heat emotion. First off, this was the first round in the best of two — among a gaggle of sixteen contenders and shrugging voter apathy, the sitting President Jacques Chirac came in first with a less than impressive 20 percent while the current Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin was humiliatingly edged out. Le Pen's success in reaching the second round to face-off Chirac May 5th will likely be short lived. The respected left-leaning newspaper Le Monde had a graphic front page cartoon showing an eerie montage of the New York's Twin Towers burning; one tower of Jospin collapsing and the other of Chirac catching fire. An aircraft with the face of Le Pen circles. This September 11th evocation shows the psycological depth of this crumbling of the left. The left seethes with anger. The left is fragmented, demoralized, but collectively stands at nearly 40 percent. Parties to the left of the mainstream Socialists pulled — 25 percent ( the official Communist Party and Trotskyite revolutuionary movements). Jospin himself (a Trotskyite in his youth) who was left in the lurch had less to do with his fairly moderate policies than the nature of the electoral process itself. It's often said that in the first round people vote with their hearts (emotion) and the second with their minds (common sense). Given that Le Pen polled 17 percent and six different radical groups of the left pulled in a similar tally, one should begin to truly worry. This becomes a dangerous polarization where political fantasy could become reality. Only one contender, Alain Madelin (my choice at 4 percent), mirrored a free enterprise and non-statist conservative view on the American or British mold. The perpetual opinion polls, pundits, and chattering classes totally missed this political faultline. Why? This is precisely part of the problem; governments of both left and right often take the voters for granted, allowing them, through a kind of noblese oblige, to vote for them and endorse their power and pride. The political class in France has a distinguishing feature of smugness and "we know better than you" hauteur which has alienated and disgusted many voters and turned politics from its former passion into a choice of the lesser of evils. The French voters were taken as a nation of guignols who, will like a clown, do what he is told with a smile or shurg, and then go on to pay higher taxes, be a victim of crime, be insulted by corruption, and be told to shut up when the electoral farce is over. Recall that Ross Perot in 1992 played this role as a comical and disturbing "outsider" confronting the major parties and the habitually dull choices being presented to the American voters. Perot hit a raw nerve and served as the spoiler. The French candidates represented a political spectrum which mirrors the theatre of the absurd. Despite this disconnect, France is a prosperous and most pleasant country. The vote for Le Pen has far less to do with his extreme views than a beaucoup backlash to the arrogant "politics as usual" of either dull and dour Jospin or the engaging but ethically flawed Chirac. This was a case of classic French cynicism which vetted itself on the system where crime continues to grow, illegal immigration has been tolerated, Islamic funadmentalism and vile anti-Jewish attacks flourish (oft tolerated by the left), and urban Franco/Arab youth boo and jeer the Marseillese anthem before a soccer match between France and Algeria. Apocalyptic post election predictions aside, there are cards which Le Pen as a demagogue, plays exceptionally well; insecurity and national identity. Le Pen's "zero tolerance" for escalating crime and his appeal to French nationalism impress voters. Many French are quite uncomfortable with the trappings of the European Union and the introduction of the Euro currency replacing the Franc earlier this year. Le Pen has made anti--EU a key platform and this outflanked the "experts" who have totally taken for granted that most French wish to be part of a homogenized European super-state. They were wrong. Le Pen is NOT a conservative but a scion of the Statist right and a sucessor to movements in French history many would rather forget. Yet, he has cleverly co-opted many causes and issues which have a wider appeal while naturally downplaying his darker political instincts. His anti-crime, anti-globalization and xenophobic message plays well in many quarters. Indeed many of his supporters, in certain Paris industrial suburbs and in the south of France, are former communists who have gotten the short end of the social stick to illegal immigrants. In the second round Chirac, a conservative with a small "c" — Gaullist lite — will rally the right and receive support from the entire political spectrum as an insurance policy against a second Le Pen surprise. Moderate socialists will back Chirac, no question. Voter turnout will be high precisely to avoid a repeat of this embarassing political pie in the face. President Jacques Chirac will be re-elected. And then? There has been a very long overdue wakeup call to the political classes. Should they reawaken, this will be a lesson very well learned. Should they shrug this off, they are sadly in for further surprises.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
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