 Oil man's bluff
UNITED NATIONS — It's the classic combination — Middle East chaos, Arab resentment seething over onto the streets, a dizzying diplomatic dance to patch together a peace plan, and the old clarion call by a dictator for an oil boycott against the US. Saddam has insisted again on playing the villan and has called for suspending oil sales to the West. Given that petroleum prices are already up by 40% this year, Saddam's plan could escalate beyond the bluff stage. The Saudis, our second largest foreign supplier, insist that they shall not join the boycott — that 's good news for the U.S. Obviously the Arab OPEC members understand the price of French luxury goods and German cars forces their desert Kingdoms to keep pumping black gold. And while Saddam's call for a one month boycott has so far not gotten any takers — this could change as the perception of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict roils Arab opinion on the "Street"." In other words, while moderate Arab governments understand the need to keep pumping petroleum, the increasingly radicalized masses may think otherwise. Interestingly the Islamic Republic of Iran, foolishly deemed to be "moderate" by many in the West has called for stopping its oil exports IF others do so too. Teheran's Parliament Speaker Mehdi Karroubi called for an oil boycott in concert with other petroleum producers. Earlier Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei called on Arab states to launch a "symbolic" one month embargo on the West to pressure them to stop supporting Israel. While memories of the 1973-74 boycott following the Yom Kippur War, or the 1979 cutbacks following the overthrow of the Shah of Iran by Islamic fundamentalists are hardly comforting, in this case Saddam out on a limb — so far. Though the Iraqi dictator is hardly known for his good timing or suave political sagacity, what Baghdad has tried to do is to throw world markets into a tizzy — not so much with a shortage but with higher prices. The Iraqi dictator knows that while his call for cutbacks will not in the short term re-create the gas lines of the 1970's, it can very well hurt economic recovery in the US and Western Europe. The earlier boycotts, while symptomatically causing the grief of waiting on gas lines, actually caused a far deeper economic malaise of recession. The actual shortfall during the 1973 boycott was only about five percent. America imports 11.6 million barrels of oil a day; just under a million coming from Iraq. In fact Iraq, surprisingly so, remains the U.S. sixth largest supplier. This is partly a result of the reckless policy of the Clinton Administration to buy more and more "cheap Arab oil" in exchange for lower gas pump prices. What we prolonged and encouraged was a dangerous dependency on foreign oil, which in turn pulls Washington into the vortex of Middle Eastern politics. The good news is that both Canada and Mexico remain our biggest suppliers as is Venezuela. Yet here too with crisis in the Venezuelan oil fields and an erratic regime in Caracas, again the spectre of disruption emerges. Though Iraq is allowed to pump oil under the tightly scripted UN Oil for Food program, through which Baghdad sells approximately two million barrels daily in exchange for food and humanitarian supplies, Saddam has been choked by the economic sanctions dating from the Gulf War. Since its inception, the Oil for Food program has brought more than $50 billion in revenues to Baghdad. Economic sanctions won't be loosened until Baghdad comes clean on allowing UN weapons inspectors back into the country. This raises the larger issue of a dangerously militarized Iraq, whether the inspectors will get back, and when Washington and Britain will finally face off with the dictator Saddam. Though President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair are basically on the same page concerning Iraq, most of Western Europe and more importantly the Arab world is NOT. Secretary of State Colin Powell faces a herculean task in the coming weeks. Many pundits suggest that the road to Baghdad goes through Palestine — this is to say that before there can be any coalition building for an assualt on Saddam, there must first be a political solution to the percolating Palestinian problem. As Vice President Richard Cheney discovered on his recent trip through the Middle East, even moderate Arab states as well as our Turkish allies, have tepid enthusiasm for military action against Baghdad — at least for now despite the overwhelming evidence of Iraq's buildup of weapons of mass destruction. Moreover the Arab "Street," namely the masses who are swayed by emotion, rhetoric, and white-heat anti-American and anti-Israel hatred remain impressed with Saddam,"patron saint of Palestinian suicide bombers" as many do with Arafat, the discredited "godfather" of Palestinain nationalism. Saddam is playing petroleum poker against oil men in Washington. Both Presidnet Bush and VP Richard Cheney understand the game very well. Quite frankly the endgame here pits a Middle Eastern dictator against a West Texas oilman. Interesting in itself. On the one hand, Washington has yet to get its ducks in a row for the impending military operation against Iraq. On the other, it's long overdue that realistic and responsible domestic energy policy become part of America's wider war on terror. Why? Prescisely becasue we don't want vulnerable oil suppliers, lines of communication, and a political weathervane to determine our fate. Until such a time that America has a national security oriented oil policy, we shall continue to be hostage to the dangerous game of the oil man's bluff.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
See current edition
of
   |
