 Showdown in Zimbabwe
UNITED NATIONS — It's a showdown in Zimbabwe — time for the electoral faceoff between longtime dictator Robert Mugabe and his democratic rival Morgan Tsvangirai. But the upcoing presidential election between Comrade Bob and his much reviled opposition holds both promise and peril for this once prosperous southern African land, formerly known as Rhodesia. On the positive side, a democratic opposition vicotry could stop the perilous economic slide and reinvigorate the political sector. Conversely, a Mugabe victory would deepen the malaise and possibly set the stage for civil war. Either way, Zimbabwe's eleven million people are in a tough spot. Crude electoral manipulation and classic thuggery by Mugabe's ruling Marxist ZANU party may assure victory despite a restive social situation fueled by a freefall in living standards and a serious shortfall in food supplies. Zimbabwe's incomes are half what thery were at independence in 1980. The rich land, formerly a food exporter, now has serious food shortages. The once productive agricultural sector, has been shaken and shattered by farm occcupations by regime sponsored gangs. MDC rallies and supporters are harassed. An overall climate of unease pervades the land. Britian has tried to bring pressures for political change on its former colony, once known as Rhodesia. During the recent Commonwealth Summit in Australia, Prime Minister Tony Blair lobbied in vain for Zimbabwe's suspension from the Commonwealth as a political price for Mugabe's actions. Yet, Blair could garner little formal support to face off Mugabe either through sanctions or suspension form the Comonwealth, given that many of the groups members themselves have a sense of solidarity with Mugabe as they fear that their own political rights rosters are not exactlty sterling. Election monitors from the European Union will be viewing the vote but in a confined way. The regime expelled Pierre Schori, Swedish Ambassador to the United Nations, who led the EU mission. After his expulsion, Amb. Schori spoke of a bleak situation with repression, intimidation of the MDC opposition, and press crackdowns. Indeed Zimbabwe's rulers have put a tight noose round the crusading Daily News newspaper. Earlier the govermment expelled British journalists from the BBC. Perhaps Comrade Bob feels that if foreign observers or the press don't see something, it has not happened. The issue in the Zimbabwe Presidential vote is starkly simple; shall a corrupt and kleptocratic regime keep its power at all costs and possibly bring national disaster, or shall the Movement for Democratic Change have a hand at the reigns of government to possibly reverse the lunge towards the abyss? The Economist of London states of the 78 year old Mugabe, "After 22 years of misrule, most Zimbabweans would love to be rid of him. On the other hand, the old man is cheating, chiefly through the use of terror. Such tactics have worked before." Importantly the Economist adds, "Mugabe is unpopular because the average Zimbabwean income has fallen by half since independence ..the longer Mr. Mugabe has been in power, the more entrenched and corrupt his regime has become..skilled Zimbaweans have emigrated by the planeload.." Many more have fled by land over the frontier with neighboring South Africa. This outcome in itself in not unusual in the Third World--yet Zimbabwe was a prosperous and bountiful land which has been run into the ground becaue of socialist stupidity, ideological rigidity, and crude racism. It did not have to be that way. For a long time after independence, Zimbabwe performed relatively well despite its rulers and regime. Accumulated wealth, resources, social goodwill, and common sense allowed the country to bypass the obvious pitfalls of so many developing lands. The country's white and Asian micro-minority was allowed to stay on and many did. Now this genuine advantage has been stupidly squandered. Today minorities are harassed by almost ritualistically by regime Militas as a part of the election campaign. And look at the results of Comrade Bob's misrule; unemployment at 60% and inflation at 115%! The Zimbabwe dollar valued at Z$ 55 has melted to nealry Z$ 200! In the meantime, Mugabe has allegedly been squrrilling millions of dollars out of the country to offshore banks in the Channel Islands and Malaysia. Thus even with a relatively free vote, something highly problematic given the regime's record, Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC could win. An MDC victory would hopefully install the rule of law, and as importantly, set a political standard which would revive business and foreign donor confidence. This would be a herculean task for Morgan Tsvangirai, himself a former labor union activist. But given the right political rhetoric and tone, the MDC could stop the freefall. As importantly an opposition win must be at once politically reinforced and economically underwritten by the USA, Britian and the European Union. Any hesitation would be fatal. Zimbabwe is named after an ancient mystical stone city of conical towers and walls known as the Zimbabwe ruins. Comrade Bob's tragic policies now threaten to turn the entire country into a larger version of his nation's namesake.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
See current edition
of
   |
