TEL AVIV Ñ The successor to the besieged and aging Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is likely to be his deputy Mahmoud Abbas.

Mahmoud Abbas

The Islamic opposition is not in any position to take over the Palestinian leadership. Despite its rising popularity, Hamas does not command more than 20 percent of Palestinian support.

Instead, the study by the Middle East Review of International Affairs asserts that Arafat's successor will be decided by his Fatah organization, the leading faction of the PLO. Abbas is the chairman of the PLO's Executive Committee.

"This mortality factor applies to the most likely single successor to Arafat, Mahmoud Abbas," the report said. "He is not particularly charismatic but his seeming disadvantages as a leader may appeal to those who want someone as an interim chief, hoping they will soon succeed this successor."

Abbas has been one of the three Fatah representatives on the PLO Executive Committee. He has been critical of Arafat's decisions to maintain the war against Israel but is regarded as ideologically hardline.

The report said the succession process will not be violent and will not be influenced by either Israel or the United States.

"Thus, if Arafat dies or is disabled within the next five years, the most likely successor would be, like Abu Mazen, a member of the older generation with strong Fatah credentials," author Barry Rubin writes. "That person would probably be a transition leader. But the longer Arafat lasts the better the chance for a younger figure."

Rubin, director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center of the Herzliya-based Interdisciplinary Center, rules out such Palestinian security chiefs as Mohammed Dahlan and Jibril Rajoub. Rajoub is said to have numerous enemies in Fatah and Dahlan does not have the political clout.

Palestinian legislative speaker Ahmed Qurei is regarded more of a technocrat than a leader, and PLO political department chief Farouk Khaddoumy is seen as too close to Syria for the PLO.

The report warns that Arafat's successor would require a long transition period. This would limit the maneuvering ability of any new Palestinian leader to negotiate with Israel.

"The new leader also would be under pressure to show that he is just as militant and steadfast as his predecessor," the report said. "The most likely candidates for succession do not have views widely at variance with Arafat, though they do seem more stable personalities. At any rate, they will be far more constrained about making major policy shifts."

"To assume that the next Palestinian generation is more pragmatic and moderate than its elders seems at least partly based on wishful thinking," the report said. "If anything, the opposite may be true."

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