TEL AVIV Ñ Israel's leading strategic institute asserts that the
nation's deterrence against adversaries in the Middle East has not been
eroded.
The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies said that despite two years of
war with the Palestinians, Israel has maintained deterrence against its
neighbors. The center, part of Tel Aviv University, asserted that Israel has
increased its conventional weapons superiority against Arab states.
"Despite two years of violence, there hasn't been an erosion in the
basic strategic balance," Jaffee Center director Shai Feldman said. "There
has been no change in terms of technology and the basic understanding by the
Arabs who seek to avoid a total war with Israel."
The center issued the assessment on Tuesday during the release of its
annual military balance. The book, entitled "The Middle East Military
Balance
2001-2002," reviews major defense and security issues in the region and
provides a breakdown of the militaries of Israel, Iran, Turkey and virtually
all of the Arab League states.
Shlomo Brom, who co-authored the military balance, said Arab militaries
have been deterred by Israel's growing conventional capability over the last
two years. The Jaffee Center publication reported that Israel, Egypt and
Saudi Arabia are the only Middle East countries with a modern tank fleet and
air force.
"A major reason that a regional war did not erupt between Israel and the
Arabs over the last two years was that the Arabs perceived Israel's
conventional superiority," Brom, a former chief of strategic planning at
Israel's military, said. "That gap is growing. The Arabs have concluded that
there's no point in engaging in a conventional war with Israel."
Brom said Israel's conventional warfare capability has absorbed the
lessons from the revolutions in information and military doctrine. He said
Israel's capability closely resembles that of the United States.
But the center said Israel's capability has pushed the Arabs into other
forms of warfare, such as low-intensity conflict and nonconventional weapons
development. It cited Iran's missile and nuclear program as well as the
growing strength of the Iranian-based Hizbullah along Israel's border with
Lebanon.
Brom said Israel and Hizbullah -- with some 10,000 rockets -- have
reached a "balance by both sides to cause pain. This has proven itself to be
quite stable."
The center asserted that the Israeli-PA appears to have reached a
stalemate. The war began in September 2000 and more than 2,200 people have
been killed.
The Jaffee Center strategists stressed that their assessment was not
meant to support any significant cut in Israel's defense budget. They said
Israel's deterrence is maintained by its spending on new systems that can be
used both against conventional militaries as well as insurgency groups.
Israel's previous government has approved a spending cut of 8 billion
shekels [$1.7 billion]. The Defense Ministry, in an unprecedented move, has
rejected the Cabinet decision and refused to include the cuts in its annual
planning.
"The current state of deterrence must be maintained," Feldman said. "It
doesn't mean that we can divert resources [from the defense budget]."
