LONDON Ñ A report prepared by the heads of Britain's three intelligence agencies has concluded that Iraq has launched development
of intermediate-range missiles.
A government report based extensively on information from the British
Joint Intelligence Committee [JIC] and the chief of
defense intelligence concluded that the regime of Iraqi
President Saddam Hussein has begun efforts to produce a ballistic missile
with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers.
British intelligence has also determined that Iraq launched development
of its first solid-fuel missile, Middle East Newsline reported.
The report said the Iraqi effort
began early this year and that over the last six months Baghdad has taken
bold steps for the procurement of required missile components.
"In mid-2001 the JIC drew attention to what it described as a
'step-change' in progress on the Iraqi missile programme over the previous
two years," the report, entitled "Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction: The
Assessment of the British Government," said.
"It was clear from intelligence
that the range of Iraqi missiles which was permitted by the UN and
supposedly limited to 150 kilometers was being extended and that work was
under way on larger engines for longer-range missiles. In early 2002 the JIC
concluded that Iraq had begun to develop missiles with a range of over 1,000
kilometers."
The report said that even given the return
of United Nations weapons inspectors Iraq will be able to complete
intermediate-range missile development by 2007.
The report said Iraq began the effort to extend the range of its
missiles in 1998. Iraq constructed an engine test stand larger than the one
used for testing the engines of the short-range Al Samoud. Baghdad is also
working to obtain improved guidance technology to increase missile accuracy.
The report was drafted in cooperation with the Joint Intelligence
Committee. The JIC, established in 1936, is comprised of the heads of
Britain's three intelligence and security agencies as well as the chief of
defense intelligence.
The JIC also assessed that Iraq retained up to 20 Al Hussein missiles
from
before the 1991 Gulf War. The missile is said to have a range of about 650
kilometers.
"We judge that the engineering expertise available would allow these
missiles to be maintained effectively, although
the fact that at least some require re-assembly makes it difficult to judge
exactly how many could be available for use," the report said. "They could
be used with conventional, chemical or biological warheads and, with a range
of up to 650 kilometers, are capable of reaching a number of countries in
the region including Cyprus, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel."
The report said that since 1991 Iraq has been openly developing two
short-range missiles of up to a range of 150 kilometers, permitted by the UN
Security Council. Baghdad has extensively tested and deployed the Al Samoud
liquid propellant missile and has produced at least 50.
"Intelligence also indicates that Iraq has worked on extending its range
to at least 200 kilometers in breach of UN Security Resolution 687," the
report said. "Production of the solid propellant Ababil-100 is also
underway, probably as an unguided rocket at this stage."
The Ababil-100 is powered by solid fuel, the report said, which ensures
greater ease of storage, handling and mobility. The report said Iraq also
plans to extend the range of the Ababil-100 to at least 200 kilometers.
"Even if sanctions remain effective, Iraq might achieve a missile
capability of over 1000 kilometers within 5 years," the report said. "Iraq
has managed to rebuild much of the missile production infrastructure
destroyed in the Gulf War and in Operation Desert Fox in 1998. New
missile-related infrastructure is also under construction."
Iraq appears to replicating facilities that were used in the Badr-2000
medium-range missile program in cooperation with Argentina and Egypt, the
report said. The Badr, a two-stage solid-fuel missile, with a range of
between 700 and 1,000 kilometers, was cancelled by Argentina in the late
1980s.
British intelligence also determined that before the 1991 Gulf war Iraq
had succeeded in reverse-engineering a Scud missile engine in an attempt to
develop new missiles. They included plans to develop a Scud-derived missile
with a range of 1,200 kilometers.
The British report cited India as a key supplier to Iraq's missile
program, funded from the $3 billion in illegal oil revenues obtained by the
Saddam regime in 2001. The report said India's NEC Engineers Private Ltd.
provided material for a new plant at Al Mamoun to produce ammonium
perchlorate, a key ingredient in the production of solid propellant rocket
motors. India has recently suspended NEC's export license.
"Intelligence makes it clear that Iraqi procurement agents and front
companies in third countries are seeking illicitly to acquire propellant
chemicals for Iraq's ballistic missiles," the report said. "We judge these
are intended to support production and deployment of the Al Samoud and
development of longer-range systems."
