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Moscow losing sympathy for Iraq as $10 billion debt goes unpaid

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Wednesday, October 9, 2002

MOSCOW Ñ The government of President Vladimir Putin appears to be moving away from Baghdad and closer to support for a U.S.-led war against Iraq, Russian strategists say.

Moscow has become increasingly disenchanted with Iraq and its policies, they say, and Putin no longer believes that Baghdad will repay its $10 billion debt to Moscow.

Russia has more economic interests in Iraq than in any other Arab country, Middle East Newsline reported.

Radio Liberty reported that a survey of 1,500 people throughout Russia conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation on Sept. 21 revealed that only 4 percent of Russians think Moscow should support Baghdad in the event of a military conflict between the United States and Iraq.



The poll results were cited by gazeta.ru on Oct. 2.

Russian industry sources said Putin has assured the nation's energy industry that it will not be harmed by the toppling of the Saddam regime. Mihhail Dolgov, a spokesman for LUKoil, said Moscow has pledged to protect the company's multi-billion dollar interests in Iraq regardless of the regime in Baghdad.

Sergei Markov, director of the Institute of Political Studies, told a Moscow strategic seminar last week that Russia doubts whether Iraq will honor its pledge to provide $40 billion in energy and other contracts.

Baghdad launched the negotiations with Moscow earlier this year as part of Iraqi efforts to halt a U.S.-led attack on Iraq.

"Russia does not need a military operation because it will deliver a rather serious blow to its economic interests," Markov said. "At the same time Russia does not need the sanctions on Iraq to be lifted either because the previous experience shows that one cannot believe military dictators whose hands are in blood up to the elbow, and of whom Saddam Hussein is one. There is absolutely no guarantee that these $40-billion contacts will be honored."



Markov said Moscow cannot expect any major contracts with Iraq even if the United Nations lifts sanctions. He called on the government to maintain the current situation to ensure that high oil prices are maintained.

The Russian strategist raised the prospect that the toppling of the Saddam regime will destabilize the entire Persian Gulf and Middle East.

Markov said this could result in an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq and the toppling of regimes in Gulf Cooperation Council states and Turkey.

"It seems to me that to stop the war in Iraq today is impossible," Markov said. "Maybe some new developments will intervene and help but in all probability it will not be possible to stop the war."

Mikhail Leontyev, a leading Russian analyst and broadcaster, agreed that Russia would not be able to stop a U.S. attack on Iraq. But Leontyev envisioned chaos in the Middle East, saying Washington doesn't even understand the prospect for failure.

"None of what they're planning can be accomplished," Leontyev said. "For example, when they speak about the establishment of democratic regimes, I have yet to see a democratic regime in Saudi Arabia. And yet they talk about it with a straight face and it looks as if they may actually try to do it."

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