MOSCOW Ñ The government of President Vladimir Putin appears to be moving away from Baghdad and closer to support for a
U.S.-led war against Iraq, Russian strategists say.
Moscow has become increasingly disenchanted
with Iraq and its policies, they say, and Putin no longer
believes that Baghdad will repay its $10 billion debt to Moscow.
Russia has
more economic interests in Iraq than in any other Arab country, Middle East Newsline reported.
Radio Liberty reported that a survey of 1,500 people throughout Russia conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation on Sept. 21 revealed that only 4 percent of Russians think Moscow should support Baghdad in the event of a military conflict between
the United States and Iraq.
The poll results were cited by gazeta.ru on Oct. 2.
Russian industry sources said Putin has assured the nation's energy
industry that it will not be harmed by the toppling of the Saddam regime.
Mihhail Dolgov, a spokesman for LUKoil, said Moscow has pledged to protect
the company's multi-billion dollar interests in Iraq regardless of the
regime in Baghdad.
Sergei Markov, director of the Institute of Political Studies, told a
Moscow strategic seminar last week that Russia doubts whether Iraq will
honor its pledge to provide $40 billion in energy and other contracts.
Baghdad launched the negotiations with Moscow earlier this year as part of
Iraqi efforts to halt a U.S.-led attack on Iraq.
"Russia does not need a military operation because it will deliver a
rather serious blow to its economic interests," Markov said. "At the same
time Russia does not need the sanctions on Iraq to be lifted either because
the previous experience shows that one cannot believe military dictators
whose hands are in blood up to the elbow, and of whom Saddam Hussein is one.
There is
absolutely no guarantee that these $40-billion contacts will be honored."
Markov said Moscow cannot expect any major contracts with Iraq even if
the United Nations lifts sanctions. He called on the government to maintain
the current situation to ensure that high oil prices are maintained.
The Russian strategist raised the prospect that the toppling of the
Saddam regime will destabilize the entire Persian Gulf and Middle East.
Markov said this could result in an independent Kurdish state in northern
Iraq and the toppling of regimes in Gulf Cooperation Council states and
Turkey.
"It seems to me that to stop the war in Iraq today is impossible,"
Markov said. "Maybe some new developments will intervene and help but in all
probability it will not be possible to stop the war."
Mikhail Leontyev, a leading Russian analyst and broadcaster, agreed that
Russia would not be able to stop a U.S. attack on Iraq. But Leontyev
envisioned chaos in the Middle East, saying Washington doesn't even
understand the prospect for failure.
"None of what they're planning can be accomplished," Leontyev said. "For
example, when they speak about the establishment of democratic regimes, I
have yet to see a democratic regime in Saudi Arabia. And yet they talk about
it with a straight face and it looks as if they may actually try to do it."