LONDONÑ The United States has revised its strategic doctrine and
will probably launch a war against Iraq within the next six months, a
leading strategic institute said.
The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said the
U.S. doctrine emphasizes preemption and a change in the Middle East.
"The present Pentagon mantra is: If you want peace prepare for war; if
you want a coalition prepare to fight unilaterally," institute director John
Chipman said. "On present form, it remains more probable than not that a war
will be waged within the next six months."
The
institute, releasing its annual publication on the strategic balance, said
Washington is prepared to fight Iraq alone in a war that could begin within
weeks, Middle East Newsline reported.
"Military operations could start in December," the institute's deputy
director Steven Simon said.
The institute said a U.S. war against Iraq is part of Washington's new
strategic policy. Such a policy seeks to defuse tensions and end the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and long-range missiles.
Strategists at the institute said the United States might be able to
destroy the Saddam regime without entering Baghdad. They envisioned the
prospect that Saddam's forces would agree to negotiate a surrender by the
time allied forces are at the entrance to the Iraqi capital.
A successful effort against Iraq, Chipman said, must also include the
revival of the Arab-Israeli peace process. He said the Bush administration
believes that the destruction of the Saddam regime would isolate opponents
of
an Israel-Palestinian peace process and press Egypt and Saudi Arabia to
support Palestinian reform.
"Against this background, the U.S. is clearly moving away from a foreign
and security policy aimed only at maintaining the status quo, to one,
especially in the Middle East, that seizes opportunities actively to change
the international security context in which it must operate," Chipman said.
"Others will need to get used to a more entrepreneurial foreign and defense
policy, and move with similar agility and flair, early on, if they are to
influence U.S. security priorities and policies."
The institute said the United States and allies would face the challenge
of a post-war government in Baghdad. Strategists said the prospect of
importing a government-in-exile would be virtually impossible. Instead,
Washington would have to ensure that Iraqi leaders are free of the influence
of the dictatorial Ba'ath movement.
