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When Godot arrives in Argentina he may well be in military uniform


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By Claudio Campuzano
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

March 1, 2002

That steady hum you hear from down south is Argentina's central bank presses printing pesos at full speed. And the background din that comes with it is from the crowds queuing up outside the Italian and Spanish consulates in Buenos Aires seeking means of running away from the land of the dwindling peso.

Literally broke, the government is printing money, admitted Deputy Economy Minister Jorge Todesca, adding the forecast for "monetary emission was 1 billion pesos to finance public spending." But a study released by independent think tank Fundación Capital said the central bank had injected at least 1.3 billion pesos into banks to increase liquidity in February, pointing out that in 50 days the central bank had issued 72 percent of the projected 2.5 billion pesos it was expected to print to help shore up the financial system.

With the country stuck in a four-year recession that forced it to devalue its peso currency in January, the central bank changed its regulations to allow it to print money. From being equal in value to the dollar, the peso went down to half that value-and expectations are it might plunge to four pesos to the dollar. With their bank account holdings frozen and slowly converted into devalued pesos, middle class Argentines have lost billions of dollars.

This, and unemployment at 22 per cent, has mobilized large numbers of those who have the option to escape abroad, mainly among those of Italian or Spanish descent, who are crowding the consulates to get the passports of those nationalities they may be entitled to.

Forty-five percent of Argentines have fallen into poverty. In a sign of deepening recession last month, when Argentina defaulted on part of its $141 billion public debt, shopping mall sales plummeted 40 percent and construction activity fell 44.2 percent.

The government, unable to pay hundreds of thousands of state workers, is anxiously looking for ways to ensure there is no repeat of food riots in December that left 27 people dead and brought the resignation of President Fernando de la Rua. Police forces, fearing more looting, have stepped up patrols around markets in the industrial outskirts of the capital.

Politicians are publicly despised to such extreme that "no politician can safely walk the streets without risking physical integrity," said former president Carlos Menem, who was roundly booed a few days ago when he showed up at a Buenos Aires restaurant with his young Chilean wife. A public opinion poll last week found one in two of Argentina's 36 million citizens believes no politician-and that includes current president Eduardo Duhalde-is capable of leading the crisis-ridden nation back to growth.

Restarting International Monetary Fund aid is vital for Argentina, which has few other options to shore up its recession-battered budget. Argentina needs as much as $20 billion to deal with short-term problems, including a banking system on the verge of bankruptcy. Almost $10 billion remains undrawn under Argentina's frozen $22 billion IMF loan-money Buenos Aires hopes it can unlock through an agreement on a new economic program with the lender. Renewing relations with the fund is also a prerequisite to securing billions of dollars in aid from the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank.

The International Monetary Fund has taken an increasingly hardline stance over help to Latin America's No. 3 economy despite fears the nation could be headed for widespread civil unrest.

Buoyed by a hard-fought deal with Argentine provinces on spending cuts, the government seeks now speedy approval in Congress of a 2002 budget that it hopes will unlock up to $25 billion in crucial IMF aid. The lower house Chamber of Deputies, dominated by the ruling Peronist party, opened debate on Thursday of the budget bill that will slash spending this year by over 14 percent. Analysts and legislators expect it will be approved.

While IMF officials welcomed the deficit-reduction deal, saying it hoped to send a negotiating mission to Argentina as soon as next week, the multilateral lender added that a "considerable amount of work" remained to be done.

The accord with governors eliminates the monthly minimum of $650 million in federal grants to provinces that is blamed for punching a hole in the national budget. But even if Duhalde did persuade them to accept a lower amount, the fundamental problem of provincial reliance on generous hand-outs from the capital would remain. The 24 regions from the jungle border with Brazil in the north to icy Tierra del Fuego in the south contribute very little in tax revenues to the national coffers.

As complaints of rising prices of basic foods such as eggs and bread in supermarkets grow louder, street protests become more violent, and well-known commentators coolly discuss the situation in intellectual terms borrowed from France's Le Monde, the people keep expecting somebody will give them hope of a better future and a concerned business establishment, that doubts the ability of political leaders to handle the crisis, meets regularly with the army's high command, suggesting that a military role might be in the offing-not to take over the government but to reinforce its spine.

In Samuel Becket's play, "Waiting for Godot", Estragon and Vladimir discuss philosophical issues while they await the mysterious character Godot. Godot never appears, despite the promises of a young boy who comes on at the end each act claiming to be his emissary. It may well be that Argentina's Godot eventually arrives-in full military garb.

Claudio Campuzano (claudio-campuzano@hotmail.com) is U.S, correspondent for the Latin American newsweekly Tiempos del Mundo and editorial page editor of the New York daily Noticias del Mundo. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com

March 1, 2002

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