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Experts call on Bush to end sanctions against Iran

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Monday, February 19, 2001

LONDON Ñ Leading Western analysts as well as a U.S. report sponsored by Congress are calling on the Bush administration to consider lifting sanctions from Iran.

The analysts said President George Bush should not renew the Iran-Libya Sanction Act when it expires on Aug. 5. The act bans major investment in Iran's energy sector.

Another recommendation was that Iran be included in a pipeline that would bring oil and natural gas from Central Asia to Turkey and Europe. The analysts said U.S. support for the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline does not make economic sense.

"Continuing this two-pronged exclusionary effort is likely to drive Moscow and Teheran into even closer cooperation," said Geoffrey Kemp of the Nixon Center in Washington.

Kemp told a conference this week sponsored by the Royal Institute of International Affairs that Vice President Dick Cheney and other senior officials have been critical of U.S. sanctions against Iran. Kemp said U.S. sanctions on Iran and Libya are unpopular in Congress and have created opposition in Europe.

Another analyst, Beverly Rudy, agreed. A U.S. attorney on energy issues, Ms. Rudy said the administration has signaled that Washington would lift restrictions on investment in Iranian energy development. She said the sanctions failed to prevent investment in Iran by competitors of U.S. energy companies.

Ms. Rudy recommended that the administration allow U.S. energy firms to discuss investments in Iran even before August. The next step is that Washington allow U.S. companies to engage in swap deals with Iran for the export of Caspian oil. This would save the cost of building infrastructure for the transfer of Caspian oil to the West.

"Numerous signs suggest that the current administration will be more receptive to Caspian swaps than its predecessor and may even retreat from promotion of the Baku-Ceyhan line," Ms. Rudy said.

Iran and Russia are expected to reach agreement next month over the division of the oil-rich Caspian Sea among the five littoral states. These include Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan. The Caspian Sea is estimated to contain the world's third largest reserves of oil and gas after the Persian Gulf and Siberia.

In Washington, the report sponsored by Congress said the United States must consider lifting sanction on Iran, Iraq and Libya to avoid shortages and conflicts over oil. The report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies said worldwide energy demand was likely to grow more than 50 percent between now and 2020.

"If global oil demand estimated for 2020 is reasonably correct and is to be satisfied, Iran, Iraq, and Libya should by then be producing at their full potential if other supplies have not been developed," the report said.

"Indeed, if estimates of future demand are reasonably correct, the Persian Gulf must expand oil production by almost 80 percent during 2000-2020, achievable perhaps if foreign investment is allowed to participate and if Iran and Iraq are free of sanctions."

Monday, February 19, 2001

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