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UNITED NATIONS — It's often said that a week is an eternity in politics. It's tragically even longer in war. The tried and true shibboleth of "it can't happen here" has been shattered as terrorists attacked America — the searing images of hijacked jetliners crashing into civilian targets has jolted the USA into the reality of the world around us.
Contrary to the usual warnings and breakdown in diplomatic negotiations with ones adversaries which predate an actual conflict, there were no formal warnings here.
Only the white heat hatred of Islamic fundamentalism which suddenly exploded into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and across TV screens.
Just weeks before the 11 September outrage, official Washington was discussing cutting the mission and resources the U.S. military needed to fight a two front war. Logically in the aftermath of the Cold War, there was a military downshift and peace dividend, which actually turned to a myriad of unfocused peacekeeping missions from the Balkans to Haiti.
During the past decade the US military was drastically trimmed in size and strength but then expanded in missions and responsibilities. Such was possible we were smugly assured, since we are the world's sole superpower, there's nobody who can challenge us anyway. How totally secure! The Soviet Union is out of business (happily) Communist China remains a future threat, and North Korea a neo-Stalinist satrap, can't threaten the USA.
But genuine power has humility as President George W. Bush stressed at his innaguration. Now we are facing a mendacious mountain brigand with a mobilephone and Taliban tribal levies planning a Jihad (holy war). Afghanistan, a wretched and devastated land, is the focus of an impending Anglo/American military strike. Those who cut and scoffed at the military a mere month ago are now talking like latter- day General George Pattons — on to Kabul!
Afghanistan's dour Islamic fundamentalist Taliban regime — a thugocracy totally deserving of a devastating military strike, has become the Evil Emirate! In the meantime, UN relief agencies expect a massive refugee crisis in neighboring Pakistan once hostilities commence.
Mindful of history's lessons to any military force entering Afghanistan, we must
form alliances with local factions. First we must understand the tribal quilt and patiently begin to stitch together a winning strategy. We must look to the Northern Alliance, an ethnically Uzbek and Tajik military force with ethnic ties across the border to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The Alliance was until recently led by the charismatic military leader Ahmed Shah Massoud, who was assassinated by Taliban agents.
The Northern Alliance, long a forgotten footnote in the Afghan resistance to the Taliban, shall also be backed by Russia and Turkey. Moscow who once ruled these regions prudently fears Islamic fundamentalism as does secular Turkey. Though the Alliance does not control the majority of this mountainous land, they do hold key airbases and mountain passes.
"The elimination of the Taliban from Afghanistan's political arena can only be achieved by a movement launched by the Afghan people," stressed Ahad Andican, a Turkish expert on Central Asia. Speaking with the Turkish Daily News, Andican added, "The Taliban administration is a system exported by Pakistan to Afghanistan and in case of an operation against Taliban, the Afghan peole, will launch resistance against such a regime, which is seen as to be unfitting to Afghans."
Thirty percent of Afghanistan is of Turkic origin such as the Uzbek and Turkmen ethnics in the north; thus there's support from Turkey to Gen. Dostan an Uzbek warlord.
Regarding the traditionally fierce Pathan tribes in the south who also inhabit the the mountains of neighboring Pakistan, and who form the backbone of Taliban, we must look to the unifying presence from the ex-King Zahir Shah. Himself an ethnic Pathan now backed by the British, the King (86) is too old to govern, but wishes to convene what's known as a Loyal Jirgha of the tribes as to form a government of national unity breaking away from fundamentalism.
Catching Bin Laden and toppling Taliban will take a level of creative planning and coordination which is well out of the bureaucratic box — in other words non conventional players and allies, some of whom are not considered polite company inside the Washington Beltway. Pakistan moreover spiritual godfather to Taliban but now uneasy with its protoge, is itself rivited by factional strife and thus offers the U.S. an unstable platform on which to launch military strikes on Afghanistan.
In many international disputes emotion rules, not patient common sense. The Bush Administration has taken a patient, prudent, and precise approach towards the counterstrike, which when it comes shall bring deserving retrubution to the terrorists and their protectors.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
