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UNITED NATIONS — An old Chinese proverb roughly translates "May you be cursed to live in interesting times." Thus less than a week after being awarded the Beijing Olympics, the People's Republic of China concluded a Friendship Treaty with Russia. While a rekindling of the early years of Maoist romance with Stalin's Soviet Russia are clearly not in the stars, a revived friendship between the two former rivals holds interesting portents for the USA.
Less than a generation ago, a Sino/Russian Friendship Treaty would have caused a tectonic shift in the geopolitical equation. An accord between the bitter communist foes would have forced the USA to plan for the proverbial two front threat. Today's short term direct military threat is less acute, but increases exponentially in the medium run.
The Treaty signed in Moscow between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Communist Chinese boss Jiang Zemin deals with the issues of commerce, culture, and comradely ties. More significantly the pact heralds the normalization of a "multi-polar world order" — code for opposing American power.
It appears that in direct proportion to America proceeding with honing and perfecting missile defense plans, other nuclear powers such as Russia and China view the 1972 Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty as a kind sacred script written in stone.
Much as the European Union looks to the flawed Kyoto Climate Treaty as a kind of ecological talisman, the Russians and Chinese now perceive the Sino/Russian Treaty as having magical powers to ward off a powerful America.
Part of the political fallout from a decade of the U.S. smugly calling itself the world's sole superpower, remains the predictable and logical backlash that other countries will unite to challenge it. Still reeling from its post-colonial era, Russia naturally feels embittered. China on the other hand, feels empowered. Yet Beijing's growing sense of pride is counterbalanced by feeling smitten in much the same way as Japan did on the eve of its East Asian expansion in the 1930's.
What is Washington doing to counter such long term threats? The Bush Administration has pursed a quiet and determined rapprochement with India looking to the world's most populous democracy as a commercial partner and a strategic counterweight to China.
During the recent PRC/U.S. incident with the Navy P-3 reconnaissance plane in the South China Sea, President Bush feted Jaswant Singh, the Indian Defense and Foreign Minister in Washington as a less than subtle hint that the U.S. views India beyond business and tourism ties.
Though India was a "nonaligned" satrap of the old Soviet Union in the 1960's through 1980's, the New Delhi government understands the global political sea change as well as extraordinary commercial possibilities of close ties with the U.S. A decade of Indian economic expansion and entrepreneuralism especially in software looks to the U.S. markets not Moscow.
Recent Summit talks between India and Pakistan on resolving a host of contentious issues were stillborn. The contested territory of Kashmir remains the flashpoint in India/Pakistan relations. Traditionally India looked to the Russian veto on the UN Security Council as a iron clad protection of its interests in disputed Kashmir. India wishes to create competing power centers to offset Chinese power — seen though proxy Pakistan and naturally its own contested frontier with Mainland China.
While its naive to assume that India will tilt to Washington, the Bush team has sent Robert Blackwill, a seasoned diplomat to New Delhi as American Ambassador. Blackwill who was the State Department's pointman for German Unity in 1990, is a master at multilateral politics. Though the Clinton Administration lingered a few years over the appointment of an Envoy to New Delhi, this was one of George W. Bush's first Ambassadorial choices.
The Times of India headlines, "Blackwill Brief: transform ties with India." In other words build upon the long but often rocky relationships that characterize Indian/ U.S. relations over the decades.
Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca, stressed the importance of the Indian/American relationship; "Our interests and efforts will increasingly intersect throughout he world." Secretary Rocca said the sanctions slapped on India by the Clinton Administration in the wake of India's nuclear testing are being reviewed. She added, "The past few years have seen the beginning of a transformation in our ties with the world's largest democracy. Now is the time to complete that transformation."
Transforming Washington's relationship with New Delhi, makes people nervous in Moscow and off balance in Beijing.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
