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UNITED NATIONS — A year after the landmark Intra-Korean Sunshine Summit, both South and North Korea again appear to have drifted their separate ways or at least seem to have had second thoughts about what looked like a lightning summer romance of the two longtime antagonists. Thus despite the high hopes for detente on the divided Korean peninsula, neither Seoul nor Pyongyang have substantially changed their relationship.
Naturally there are good reasons--the fifty year standoff between the divided Korean cousins capitalist and communist had its roots in the bitter1950-53 War, and the "cold truce" ever since. Sharing the world's most militarized frontier does not exactly engender camaraderie. The enduring million man face-off, including 38,000, American troops, are part of the geopolitical equation.
Wishful thinking alone cannot melt this last glacier of the cold War.
South Korea's President Kim Dae-jung pressed for a Sunshine policy to prepare the way for reunification when it does come. In other words help North Korea economically so that the gap between South and North is manageable.
Presently the divide is a chasm and getting wider due to the North's moribund Marxist economy as contrasted to the overall socio/economic success of the South, despite the aftershocks of the East Asian economic crisis.
Since last year's Sunshine Summit, Seoul has finetuned a political choreography of style over substance. Family reunions staged for merely hundreds of the millions of divided family members, while a decent humanitarian step, are a drop in the bucket.
Human visits are otherwise rare as compared with the two million Taiwan visitors who
visit Mainland China annually. Contact is very managed making even the old cracks in the Berlin Wall between East and West Germany look positively cavernous.
Inter/Korean trade between South and North in 2000 despite the hype was a modest $425 million as compared to the $30 billion in commerce between the two antagonistic Chinas.
Since the Summit, South Korea has viewed DPRK dictator Kim Jong-il less as a despot and more as a quirky politician with which "one can do business." Still the Seoul and Pyongyang governments have yet to make any serious breakthrough towards better relations or unity.
Naturally blame is put on the Bush Administration which early on preferred a sober strategic review of the Clintionian starry-eyed policy. Though the reality check may have come in too strong a dose, it's prudent to be suspicious about the DPRK's missile proliferation, its nascent nuclear capability, and huge conventional forces facing across the demilitarized zone. Such challenges confront American policy.
While the South Korean government and later the European Union overreated in the other direction, Washington has now reacalibated its policy.
Importantly former President George Bush sent a memo on Korea policy through appropriate channels to his son George W. basically advising the President to reopen negotiations with North Korea. The memo was rooted in advice from former U.S. Ambassador to Korea Donald Gregg, an acknowledged authority on Korean security policy. Amb. Gregg, according to a New York Times article, argued that Washington should re-engage with North Korea because not to do so would undermine both the South Korean government as well as U.S. security interests in North Asia.
Reopening dialogue with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea allows the U.S. to closely monitor the Pyongyang regime and work towards realistic solutions. American diplomats at the U.N. have renewed contacts with their North Korean counterparts.
The Korea Times adds editorially, "There is no denying that from the beginning, Pyongyang's main goal was to gain economic benefits to overcome its economic difficulties and food shortage, while maintaining the status quo as far as military affairs are concerned." Though the DPRK has tried to lure South Korea into complacency, realistically, Seoul holds most of the cards in this high stakes strategic game.
Vladimir Putin appreciates the grand strategy of a pro-active Korea policy — "correct" solidarity with the North and big time commerce with the South. Russia wants to reconnect long-closed rail links-reopening the Seoul/Sinuju line linked to the Russian Trans Siberian and the old South Manchurian line, will cross the DMZ to go on to Seoul.
Beijing will be in the final running of whatever happens on the Korean Peninsula. Japan looks to defuse the ticking instability. That's why it's crucial that Washington is actively engaged as the key player in this vortex of the powers.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
