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UNITED NATIONS — There's a curious diplomatic momentum on the Korean peninsula in the wake of the less than chummy meeting between President George W. Bush and his South Korean counterpart Kim Dae Jung. At issue remains how to manage the delicate and discreet relationship with reclusive North Korea, a hard-line communist regime which still retains the military capacity to destabilize East Asia's balance of power.
Recently Seoul shuffled its foreign policy team in a bid aimed at easing tensions with Washington but also maintaining an engagement with North Korea. Now there's a planned European Union visit to try to open a dialogue with the DPRK. At the heart of the EU mission remains a revival of the now stillborn Clinton Administration's efforts to widen political/economic links with enegmatic Pyongyang in exchange for its presumed compliance on weapons issues.
There's no doubt that South Korean President Kim was right to go the extra mile to try to defuse tensions on the divided peninsula which remains one of the worlds' most dangerous flashpoints. His Sunshine diplomacy —shedding light into the reclusive reaches of North Korea, lead to last year's historic Summit between the estranged Korean states. The epic meeting earned Kim a Nobel Peace Prize, but had little practical effect on the ground.
The quaintly titled Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has adroitly used a controlled openness and smiling diplomacy to engender almost giddy expectations in South Korea and in Europe that change is in the air in Pyongyang. North Korea's self- anointed "Great Leader" Kim Jong-il now sees that smiling diplomacy is more effective than sneering defensiveness.
While the DPRK is certainly in dire economic straits lamentably due to the regime's incompetence and slavish adherence to its long discredited Juche ideology, Pyongyang has added arrows to its quiver in the terms of both massive conventional forces along the DMZ as well as a proliferation of missile technology sent to rogue regimes in the Middle East.
Given the very credible military threat from North Korea, the United States is more than prudent to take this oft wishful thinking about a changing North Korea with cautious optimism. President George W. Bush basically plays a skeptical hand from what he sees, whereas President Kim Dae Jung proceeds with what he wishes to see.
Given that 38,000 American forces are still stationed on the DMZ and treaty bound to protect the Republic of Korea, Washington is prudent to view Pyongyang through the prism of realism rather than presumption. While I don't blame the South Koreans for grabbing at every shred of optimism after the terribly long winter of national division and political estragement, they must not forget that their capital Seoul is in artillery range of a massed North Korean army.
General Thomas Schwartz, Commander of US forces/ Korea, warned that the military threat posed by North Korea to South Korea has grown over the past year despite a changing perception. "When I look North, I see an enemy that's bigger, better, closer, and deadlier," he told the Senate Armed services Committee.
To offset what it sees as a too tough approach by the Bush team towards Pyongyang, the European Union plans to become more involved in this East Asian flashpoint. But as the Financial Times argues editorially, "North Korea's leaders will be quietly celebrating. They have been pushing for the Europeans to play a mediating role to offset the Bush Administration's tougher line."
In the past year, most West European states have opened diplomatic ties with Pyongyang, starting with Italy's socialists and later social democrats from Germany and Britain. Before long France and Ireland are expected to recognize the DPRK thus offering the North Koreans an unparalled diplomatic triumph as well as a chance to lobby the European Union for economic aid. Now comes the EU mission with Swedish Prime Minister Goeran Persson to offer Pyongyang a third way and perhaps create conditions for the DPRK to cleverly play Europe against the U.S.
Reviving the former Clinton Administration's efforts to open a new relationship with North Korea--after Pyongyang presumably ends missile proliferation -- juxtapose with the glaring reality that the massive conventional military threat, wanton human rights violations, and a still unresolved shell game with both missiles and nuclear capacity make the DPRK a formidable threat. Diplomacy remains the art of optimism to finesse political change, but North Korea won't change its stripes to appease Seoul or Washington.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
