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UNITED NATIONS — As Spring has come, so too does the prospect of renewed fighting in the Balkans. The setting this year is Macedonia, yet another former Yugoslav Republic which broke away from Belgrade only to find itself now at risk of breaking apart itself.
Macedonian which remained quiet throughout the first four Balkans wars, now could omnisouly be the setting for the fifth.
UN Secretary General Kofi Annan stresses that the situation in Macedonia is very serious and “if it is not brought under control it could destabilize the entire region.”
Importantly the UN Security Council unamiously passed resolution reaffirming the unity and territorial integrity of Macedonia as well as condemning the violence.
Two years ago, NATO's terrible swift sword severed Slobodan's Serb forces from direct control of Kosovo, the ethnic Albanian majority "province" of Yugoslavia. Despite this, the military victory in Kosovo was followed by diplomatic dithering mostly due to the indecisiveness of both Bill Clinton and his British adjunct Tony Blair.While defeating Serbia on the battlefield, or at least from bomb runs at 14,000 ft over Serbia, NATO got Slobodan cry uncle. But it did not bring the long-suffering ethnic Albanians political freedom.
Twas a Famous Victory as I wrote, turned into a quagmire on the ground with the multinational KFOR--including the US, Germans, French and the British--as peace- keepers between the emboldened Albanians and the now terrified Serb minority. While retribution was understandable, it was not justified. KFOR now keeps the lid on an explosive Balkan bouillabaisse.
While the refugee returns from the massive Albanian Diaspora to their homes in Kosovo were truly remarkable, almost incomprehensible was Clinton's allowing Kosovo to remain legally under Serbian sovereignty though under NATO de facto protection. Could any serious person really expect the Albanians--almost 800,000 of which were driven out of Kosovo by the Serbs months earlier--to wish to return only to live again under Belgrade?
Kosovar Albanians burning desire for self determination were put in political purgatory--this procrastination plays into the hands of the militants. Though local elections last October saw the hard-line Albanian parties trounced at the polls, this did not mean a shelving of the legitimate claims to Kosovo as a independent land or perhaps someday part of Greater Albania.
With a status yet to be determined in "due course" Kosovo became an emotional rallying point for Albanians of all shades. The Kosovar Question has now spilled over into neighboring Macedonia where Albanian partisans have taken to the hills to redress
alleged ills suffered by their compatriots. Yet, many of the Albanian National Liberation Army fighters have put more focus on smuggling than self-determination.
Tragically the Albanians have been the victims many times over and they sadly stand at the threshold of losing yet again. Albanian militants originally cast as the "good guys" now turned their rage on neighboring democratic Macedonia, as well as the buffer zone between Serbia and Kosovo proper thus posing a dual challenge.
For the Albanian rebels there's no longer the specter of Serb socialist strongman Slododan Milosevic to kick around anymore. The result--NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson has given the green light for a "monitored" return of the Serb military as "stabilizing forces" in Kosovo's buffer zone.
Moreover renewed fighting threatens to trigger this Macedonian maelstrom.
The Albanians having achieved the political high ground two years ago from their persecution at the hands of a ruthless Serbian regime in Belgrade, have now allowed the Serbs a moral reprieve. And NATO may be sliding down the slippery slope of closer cooperation with Yugoslavia, admittedly sans Slobodan.
In Italian, "Macedonia" means a Mixed fruit salad--this too is a mixed multi- ethnic land of Slavs ethnically close to the Bulgarians but quite a large (30%) and restive Albanian minority.
Washington must lead the way in creative diplomacy and not dallying. Be tough but fair to all parties. Offer international support to ensure the territorial integrity of Macedonia. As for the root cause Kosovo--allow the Serb towns which adjoin Serbia the realistic option to join "sacred Serbia." Then make the point crystal clear that Kosovar Albanians will have a UN supervised referendum to vote on which status they prefer-- rejoining Yugoslavia, joining Albania, or independence.
For the international community the Balkans are a bit like the childrens tale of Humpty Dumpty--namely all the King's Horses and all the King's Men (NATO/ KFOR/ UN) failed to put Humpty back together again. Sadly, renewed Balkan fighting is no fairy tale; Balkan borders drawn in 1912 and seemingly set in stone later in Versailles appear dangerously brittle today.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
