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UNITED NATIONS — While the People's Republic of China plans to boost military spending by the largest surge in twenty years, Beijing's Marxist Mandarins are at the same time warning Washington not to sell Taiwan defensive arms. The contradiction is as glaring as it is brash. Moreover, the policy is set to the larger backdrop in which the PRC communists appear to be testing the political parameters of their relataionship with the Bush Administtration.
Thus while Beijing is boosting its own arsenal by 18%, the PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan urges America to "rein in its wild horses," in supplying defensive weapons to Taipei. Now Beijing's Deputy Premier Qian Qichen, himself a wily former Foreign Minister, will present the case in Washington.
Qian's trip comes amid the PRC's own subtle change in tactics towards Taiwan — less formal bullying but at the same time encroaching isolation of the island's diplomatic and security position. Qian's mission to Washington is difficult but not impossible and evokes the ancient Chinese military sage Sun Tzu who exclaimed "all warfare is based on deception". In other words Qian will downplay PRC military spending while promoting palaver about how Taiwan should come to peaceful terms with the dragon.
That's one reason why a Senate Staff report strongly recommends that the Bush Administration upgrade the quality of its arms sales to the Republic of China on Taiwan.
Such advanced weaponry on Taipei's security shopping list include four Aegis equipped guided missile destroyers, as well as an array of P-3 anti-submarine aircraft, and anti-aircraft missiles all desperately needed to upgrade Taiwan's defense capabilities against any PRC attack.
Given Beijing's growing military buildup and the long stated and still never renounced threat to use force to reunify what they consider "renegade" Taiwan with communist China, the Mainland's military buildup warrants deep concern. Significantly, the officially stated increase in the military budget by $17 billion — probably many times higher — should raise red flags throughout East Asia.
Recently the National People's Congress, Beijing rubber stamp Parliament, held their annual session to endorse the leaderships wish list. Military spending was high on the agenda as was continued economic development.
Though rhetoric towards Taiwan was kept to a polite minimum during the NPC's session, the fact remains that the People's Republic of China has never renounced the use of military force to bring democratic and prosperous Taiwan "back to the embrace of the motherland" or the dragon if your prefer. The leadership has regularly restated and refined the claim so there remains little grey area concerning intentions, only timing.
Just a year ago during Taiwan's Presidential elections, the candidate least likely to charm those in the Forbidden City won. The victory of Chen Shui-bian, whose DPP party once openly advocated Taiwan "independence," was a litmus test and a serious
challenge to the status quo — namely that Taiwan agreed that it was "China" but happily not part of the communist People's Republic. Governments on both sides of the Taiwan Straits defused the political anxieties responsibly but are now awaiting the next move.
Under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, Congress is legally bound to provide Taipei with "adequate" defensive weapons. Only recently Rep. Henry Hyde (R-IL), Chairman of the House International Relations Committee warned, "Congress has become increasingly concerned that arms sales to Taiwan have been inadequate."
They most certainly have been, especially during the Clinton Administration's grossly miscalculated "strategic partnership," entente with the PRC.
Despite the long standing qualitative edge the ROC military held in defending Taiwan from Chinese communist attack, there has been a genuine if unseen dulling of this sword. Both a decline in military technology as well as a less motivated military force plagues Taiwan more than is generally assumed. Equally the strides being made by Beijing's electronic and computer/cyber warfare is very dangerously underrated.
It's the People's Republic who should reign in the Wild Horses of military expansion which threatens Taiwan. As importantly, the Bush Administration should sell Taiwan the weapons it needs to preserve the island's security and sovereignty.
Keeping the Republic of China on Taiwan safe, secure, and free requires continued defensive weapons purchases from the United States — especially the high tech and upgraded military systems to keep pace with not only the PRC's staggering quantitative superiority but more dangerously its growing qualitative force structure.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
