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UNITED NATIONS — A decade after the end of the Gulf War and the liberation of Kuwait from the Iraqi occupation, Saddam Hussein still rules in Baghdad. As ironically, George W. Bush Jr. is in the White House, Allied planes enforce "no fly zones", and airstrikes slam Iraqi air defense sites. Mind you, a decade later, the economic embargo leaks like a sieve and coveted black gold pours forth from Iraq.
Thus Secretary of State Colin Powell was dealt a new hand in countering an emboldened Iraq. Following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the UN Security Council imposed tough economic sanctions that were generally respected; today they remain in tatters as does the carefully crafted military coalition framed by former Secretary of State James Baker. Moreover, the Russians then diplomatically disabled in the death throes of the Soviet Union, are now playing a renewed game with their old client Iraq.
Most importantly, once cooperative Arab governments, now feeling the powerful undertow of radical nationalism and Saddam's political appeal for the masses, are very careful not to jump on the Anglo/American bandwagon of a tough and effective embargo on Iraq.
Given the sanctions fatigue plaguing most of the parties and the genuine economic hardships caused by the embargo both in neighboring Arab countries and inside Iraq itself, there's a desire to drop the embargo and do business as usual with Baghdad.
The crux of the matter remains that until UN inspectors declare Iraq free of weapons of mass destruction, the sanctions will formally stay in place. Weapons inspections, which came to an abrupt halt in December 1998 when former President Bill Clinton launched air raids on Baghdad to deflect attention from his swirling scandals and impending impeachment, were the final straw for inspections, flawed as they were.
Speaking at the UN, Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammed al-Sahaf stated smugly, "There will be no return of any inspectors into Iraq, even if the sanctions are totally lifted." Saddam wants an unconditional lifting of the embargo. Les Jeux sont faits.
Given the U.N.'s "Oil for Food Program" in which Baghdad's petroleum sales are allowed to purchase carefully monitored supplies of humanitarian items as well as material for the Iraqi infrastructure, there's the proverbial escape valve. Between 10-16 February alone, Iraq pumped 10.8 million barrels of oil to earn $230 million. Since the program began in December 1996, Iraq has earned $39 billion.
Naturally Russia and China, two key Iraqi commercial suppliers under Oil for Food as well as diplomatic defenders of Saddam's case, want to to more business and break Baghdad's isolation. Indeed China, France, and Russia want a suspension of the sanctions. The embargo has been eroding as oil smuggling and sanctions busting by Saddam's sleazy coterie of supporters has become open season.
More dangerously both Moscow and Beijing have been aiding Iraq's military infrastructure as was exposed by Chinese communist assistance installing fiber optic lines linking radar and air defense sites.
While Secretary of State Powell calls for revised "smart sanctions" prompting a livid Iraqi response, humanitarian aid is not the issue. Rather a plethora of contracts for the electrical and industrial sector having an indisputable military dual use are suspect.
Secretary Powell found tepid support both in the Arab world and the European Union for formally tightening the noose on Saddam but this does not mean the game is over. Given Saddam's hidden arsenal and an U.N. inability to bring inspectors back into Iraq, there could be a sudden American or perhaps Israeli airstrike of ferocious proportions on suspected Iraqi weapons sites.
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, recently addressing Moscow's relative inactivity in the region in the past decade stated bluntly; "Russia's relations with the Middle East, the Arab world, have long standing roots and deep mutual interests. Russia did not withdraw, is not withdrawing, and does not intend to withdraw from the Middle East. Of course after the breakup of the Soviet Union, a pause arose in our relations which lasted several years...now this pause is overcome."
The USA must tread a fine line of sequestering Saddam and neutralizing his potential power, while not being viewed as the Western villain who wantonly slaps sanctions on Iraqi civilians. Moreover Washington no longer has the acquiescence of moderate Arabs nor the passivity of a sleeping Russian bear. It's a new game.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
