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UNITED NATIONS — Just a year ago Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe lost a sure bet. After having presumably prepared a rigged election to approve extra constitutional powers, the longtime Southern African leader discovered that his subjects were more independent minded than he had assumed. Legislative elections followed in June and the opposition, despite the usual harassment and vote tampering, again came very close to victory. Needless to say, Comrade Bob is not pleased.
Recently the Daily News, a dogged opposition newspaper after threats and intimidation by government supporters, got a less than subtle warning--a powerful bomb which smashed the paper's offices in Harare. Strong suspicion falls upon the government, although no direct evidence has emerged. This plucky paper, which got its editions out despite the cordite, of course was expected to get the message. It didn't.
The Daily News has persistently published allegations of widespread corruption, mismanagement, and political hijinks by Mugabe's government, thus earning its wrath.
In an editorial "Mugabe's Rule of Hate," The Sunday Times of London opined, "Despite the growing intimidation and recklessness of Mugabe's regime, the paper's popularity shows he has not destroyed free speech completely and that his ranting against those who dare to stand up to him has not prevailed."
Over the past few years Zimbabwe, the former Rhodesia, has turned vindictively nasty for the white and Asian micro-minority who farms and trades, and the growing black majority who dares not agree with the President. Farm seizures by "liberation war veterans" and bully boy tactics work well in the bundu where the police are far away and less than encouraged to respond. But despite the virile threats to seize and redistribute lands, President Mugabe has been thwarted by the country's independent Supreme Court which since not giving a blessing to the dictator's whims, naturally gets the short end of his scorn.
The move to gag the Court has so far resulted in forcing the Chief Justice Anthony Gubbay to resign early. Other Justices, one white and one Asian, have been threatened by violence if they do not step down. This onslaught on the Judiciary has met with widespread condemnation by legal groups in neighboring South Africa and Zambia.
Mugabe's rule by tantrum, racism, and divisiveness is in itself nothing new but let me suggest why this particularly matters. Zimbabwe is a rich agricultural land and food exporter. In contemporary Africa where civil wars and famine are rampant, the last thing needed is yet another conflict. Moreover, destroying a food producing country remains doubly dangerous.
In the early years of independence after 1980, Mugabe despite his Marxist credentials was very careful not to allow his rhetoric to actually become reality--in other words don't scare all the farmers, or the tourists, nor the investors away. Thus one could rant and rave, but should we say, in a controlled way.
Now that his 21 years rule seems under attack from the majority of citizens Comrade Bob has dropped the pretense and rails against the predictable bogeymen of "British colonialism", the white farmers, and his democratic opposition. Matters have escalated to the point when the rhetoric could reach combustion and the situation could spiral from heated debate to destruction.
The European Union has wisely curtailed its financial aid. According to the Daily News, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank who suspended aid last year, shall resume funding once they are satisfied that the land issue has been resolved and the rule of law restored. Naturally the regime's antics have not exactly encouraged tourism nor investment. This is a pity for a beautiful and bountiful Southern African land which has through mismanagement squandered a better life for its 11 million people.
But there a very thin line here too. In a strange way Mugabe thrives on criticism, especially from the British, the former colonial power. The U.S. which has played a marginal role to this point, should use creative diplomacy to reinforce the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) opposition and especially aid the fledgling free press. With Presidential elections looming next year--presuming they are held--there's a growing and emboldened democratic opposition which may be on the verge of winning.
The MDC Parliamentarian Job Sikhala from St. Mary's has called on UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, to probe President Mugabe for human rights abuses. While appealing for rights hearings in Zimbabwe may seem quixotic, focus on crisis prevention may avert a wider catastrophe down the road.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
