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UNITED NATIONS — The Bush Administration is off to a interesting start with Iran. While Secretary of State Colin Powell has wisely questioned the effectiveness of continuing U.S. economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran — despite Teheran's role in state supported terrorism — the bigger goal appears part of his Persian power Play. Namely not to let the Russians run with the ball in such a strategic part of the world, as well as to counter West European commercial influence.
Thus despite the abysmal political relations between Washington and Teheran since the 1970's — there's an opportunity to exploit Iran's internal weakness to possibly redefine the relationship. Naturally lifitng or suspending the sanctions, some were scrapped by the Clinton Administration last year, would demand a genuine and verifiable quid pro quo from Teheran.
First, there's movement for reform in Iran. Though the Western media often misperceives the mendatious but savvy mullahs, there's a political fermentation that comes from a moribund and discredited regime after twenty-two years in power. While the days of the ultra hard-line Ayatollahs are happily over, don't overestimate "reformists" such as President Khatami!
Second, the USA needs to offset the growing Russian influence in Iran. As this column has repeatedly warned over the years, Moscow has historically cast its gaze upon Persia's riches from petroleum to the warm Persian Gulf ports. Read a little history, and see what it took to extricate Uncle Joe Stalin from Iran's Azeri provinces after WWII. Add to this to Russian President Putin's genuine enchantment with Iran and its geostrategic potential, and you have a case for American concerns.
Third, getting tough with Saddam's Iraq will mean a tilt or an obvious wink towards Iran. This does not mean supporting Iran to offset Iraq — the exact opposite of the brutal Iran/Iraq War when Washington then strategically tilted towards Saddam over the Ayatollah's — but rather a sublime use of power politics.
Obvious initiatives are not necessarily the way to go. But allow American and Iranian diplomats to meet "secretly" in a neutral country, say Austria. Then let a Vienna restaurant rendevous slip to a nosy press. The ensuing uncertainties raised in Baghdad or Moscow is easily worth the price of Schnitzel and palachinka. The point is keep Putin guessing and Saddam squirming.
Third, Resistance inside in Iran is a big questionsmark and some of the players remain decidedly unpleasant. This is not the time to play the shortsighted game of the "enemy of my eneny is my friend," but rather seek to support from exiled Iranians in Europe and America.
Millions of Iranians fled after the Shah's fall in 1979 and the subsequent political contortions the Ayatollah's forced upon a once proud land. A sizable portion of the Iranian Diaspora have done well — its called education and hard work — and retain a fond feeling for their homeland.
A man uniting so much of exiled Iran, and a growing number inside the country, is the American educated Reza (40), the son of the late Shah. After leaving his homeland in 1978, Reza completed higher education in the U.S. He likewise finished USAF pilot training in Reese AFB, Lubbock, Texas.
Recently Reza sent an Satellite TV broadcast to his homeland beamed to the ubiquitous satellite dishes which sprout in the smallest hamlets. As did the Ayatollah's cassette recordings of the 1970's (sounds dated doesn't it) the message spread quickly. It appeals for national unity and calls for patriotic Iranians to join a non-violent national resistance to the clerical regime.
As Reza Shah stated, "Twenty two years of isolation, economic chaos and brutal suppression is jeopardizing the future of our nation and especially our youth." He warned of "the regime's inherent incompatibility with the principles of freedom, democracy, and civil society."
"For over 21 years a treacherous, inhumane and unpopular regime has ruled our nation. The clerical rulers of this regime have resorted to deception and demagoguery — pillaged our heritage and trampled upon our national pride ... they have ruined the lives of millions" stated the heir to the Persian throne who favors a constitutional monarchy as in Britain.
Calling for peaceful and nonviolent resistance, Reza Pahlavi implored "that the time has come to take the final steps in regaining our pride and rejoin the community of democratic nations." Reza predicted confidently, "Today in our country a new breeze is forming, one which has the aroma of freedom and liberty." One hopes he's right.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
