NICOSIA Ñ President Mohammed Khatami might have won a landslide victory and dealt his conservative opponents a crushing blow. But Western diplomats and intelligence analysts don't expect this to make any difference for Iran's defense and security policy.

Indeed, many Western intelligence sources assess that the 57-year-old Khatami strongly supports Iran's strategic programs and plays a key role softening international pressure against the Islamic republic.

Over the weekend, Khatami won about 77 percent of the vote in a victory that has both energized and worries his supporters. The worry is that Khatami will be nothing more than a lighting rod for criticism, powerless to implement reform.

His lack of authority will be most apparent in military and security issues.

"Khatami's role is not incidental," a leading Western intelligence source said. "He appears as the great Iranian hope for the West, who pleads for loans, support and political recognition while Khamenei and his colleagues build their missiles and weapons of mass destructions. In all this time, Khatami has never come out against this. If anything, he has always supported missile programs as necessary for Iranian defense."

The result is that Teheran will not decrease its support for terrorism or its weapons of mass destruction. Iran supports several groups that are conducting insurgencies in Israel and Turkey. These include the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad and the Lebanese Hizbullah. Hizbullah is said to receive between $80 and $100 million a year.

In Turkey, Iran continues to support the Kurdish Workers Party, or PKK. Despite reconciliation talks, Turkish officials said Iran continues to train and finance the PKK.

Officials said Iran keeps moving the location of the Kurdish insurgents so they can't be located by Turkish security forces. They said Iran plans to send 50 trained Kurdish insurgents into Iran.

Khatami is also expected to avoid Iran's strategic programs.

Iran is developing the Shihab-3 and Shihab-4 missiles. The former has a range of 1,300 kilometers and the latter a range of up to 2,500 kilometers.

Both programs depend on technology transfers from North Korea and Russia. U.S. missile defenses are not sufficient against the Shihab-3, which is faster than the Scud-class missiles of Iraq and capable of flying depressed or lofted trajectories against Israel, Turkey, and Egypt. The Shihab-4 missile will also be able to reach southern Europe by following an optimal minimum energy trajectory.

The sources said Iran appears to be far more advanced in its missile programs than has been reported. They said the reports that the Shihab-3 missile test in September failed because of engine mishaps was disinformation. Instead, Iran is believed to have amassed about a dozen Shihab-3 missiles while it develops the Shihab-4.

The Iranian threat is regarded as a priority for both Israel and Turkey. It was a key topic during last week's talks by U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in Ankara. Rumsfeld said the three countries are discussing a trilateral missile defense cooperation accord.

"They [Turkey] clearly they have been interested over some period of time, and had a lot of discussions with the United States and even with Israel with respect to the Arrow," Rumsfeld said. "So I mean anyone who lives in the neighborhood knows what going on and the threat is serious, and real, and growing."

The three countries have been discussing ways to launch such cooperation since 1999. Officials said Washington now recognizes the need for Israeli-Turkish-U.S. cooperation and this could be launched in 2002.

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