A weakened Arafat's orders perpetuating chaos, violence

JERUSALEM — It was yet another announcement from the White House: Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat has pledged to U.S. President Bill Clinton to reduce the violence in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

The news brought a smile from a Palestinian security official. The official predicted — correctly — that the level of violence would not be reduced by an iota and that Arafat would avoid relaying any order.

"Arafat, particularly in the West Bank, is no longer the only game in town," the official said. "There are uprising leaders who now make decisions and have long stopped asking Arafat for instructions."

The result: both Israeli and Palestinian security officials have virtually no expectations from the latest U.S. effort to reduce violence and restore security cooperation. They agreed that Arafat has refused to issue clear orders to stop Palestinian gunmen from attacking Israeli civilians and targets.

In Cairo, security officials from Israel, the PA and Egypt and the United States convened for seven hours overnight Monday in a meeting chaired by CIA director George Tenet. Palestinian sources said the meeting failed to achieve a breakthrough.

But a senior PA security source said that the meeting is expected to do little more than repeat previous commitments. The source said Israel will probably pledge to reopen the Gaza airport and border crossings while the Palestinians will agree to restore security cooperation.

Arafat has allowed some of his senior officers to cooperate with their Israeli counterparts, Israeli and PA security sources said. But at the same time, the PA chief encourages other military chiefs to organize attacks on Israelis.

The result has been chaos. In Ramallah, Palestinian security sources said, agents of the Preventive Security Apparatus, led by Col. Jibril Rajoub, have pursued gunmen from the General Intelligence sent to attack northern Jerusalem neighborhoods. In Bethlehem, PA security police patrol the suburbs that skirt Jerusalem while Fatah gunmen fire toward Israeli targets from nearby streets.

In Hebron, Israeli and Palestinian security officers have secretly met and discussed information of a bombing plot. PA officers arrested three suspects identified by Israel.

Still, these developments have not made a dent in the efforts to restore peace in the region. PA security forces and police no longer control events. They have been replaced by a so-called uprising command, composed of representatives from the ruling Fatah party, Islamic opposition and PLO factions.

"These leaders enjoy influence and power and don't want to lose it," a senior Palestinian source said. "There is a conflict between the uprising people and the PA."

The mini-war, the source said, has produced an alliance against the PA. Palestinian services have collapsed and even the police are no longer functioning. Officers come to work and do little more than sit around. In many cases, they are hired to participate in attacks against Israel in squads that include both Fatah and Hamas members.

Israeli officials said Arafat's dozen security agencies are divided into those that cooperate with Israel and those participate in attacks against the Jewish state. Rajoub's agency remains authorized with security cooperation. The Gaza security agency of Col. Amin Hindi also engages in security cooperation.

Arafat's Force 17 praetorian guard and Tirawi's General Intelligence and military intelligence are said to help plan attacks. The Gaza agency headed by Col. Mohammed Dahlan has helped organize shooting and bombing attacks against Israel. Dahlan also continues to serve as an interlocutor with Israeli security officials.

"I believe that we have not achieved the minimum of what is required according to the [United Nations Security Council] resolutions of international legitimacy 242, 338 and 194," Dahlan said. "We will continue to resist the occupation until we retrieve our legitimate rights."

Arafat's military intelligence, headed by his nephew, Mussa, has been accused by Israel of operating a squad of bombers in the Tel Aviv area. The squad is suspected of blowing up a Tel Aviv bus on Dec. 28 by using a cellular phone.

A 25-year-old Jordanian laborer, Abdullah Abu Jaber, was arrested in the bombing. He is said to have been recruited by PA military intelligence and paid 200 shekels [$48]. An Israeli Arab and a Moroccan national were also arrested.

Arafat, the head of military intelligence, has dismissed the Israeli assertion, calling it fantasy.

Palestinian sources said the conflict between security agencies has destroyed any semblance of order in the PA. They report screaming matches between Hindi and Tirawi during security meetings with Israelis and said some officials are pressuring Arafat to dismiss officers who mislead the PA chairman.

The question, Israeli and Palestinian security sources agree, is whether Arafat can restore calm even if he is intent on doing so? The assessment is mixed, but the consensus is that Arafat will require up to six months until he can tire out Palestinian uprising leaders. This would require an effort to deny the new uprising leadership money to hire gunmen and win influence.

"There's no question that if there's an order by the chairman [Arafat], it will be fulfilled," Fatah leader Hussein Sheik said. "But you are talking about a movement that consists of tens of thousands of people. We can control them, but it won't happen just like that."

Israeli officials said the longer Arafat will wait the less control he will have over Palestinian revolt leaders. They said Arafat faces a slow but steady deterioration in his authority.

"There are the first signs of deterioration," said David Chacham, Arab affairs adviser to the Defense Ministry. "But we saw this before the outbreak [of the mini-war]. There is a trend of defections from the Palestinian security forces. They are the first signs and they are not irreversible. He [Arafat] is still seen as the symbol of the Palestinian revolution."