Israel's General Staff worries Barak may do something rash

TEL AVIV — Israel's military brass is quietly fretting over the prospect of an election surprise during the race for prime minister between incumbent Ehud Barak and his challenger Ariel Sharon.

Military sources said several members of the General Staff have privately expressed concern that Barak might order a military offensive against the Palestinians or Hizbullah over the next few weeks until elections on Feb. 6. Barak is trailing badly at the polls and the sources said his advisers are urging the prime minister to project a tough image on defense.

The generals were said to have been dismayed by statements from Barak's office and the prime minister himself of an imminent threat of regional war sparked by escalating tension along the northern border. Military sources said Barak's campaign advisers quoted the prime minister — who is also defense minister — from a closed meeting with the General Staff on the need for preparations for war.

"There are several alternatives, one of them is the possibility of war," National Security Council deputy director Gideon Sheffer said. "The chance that this happens has not increased over the last few days."

The sources said Barak has also demanded from Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz a list of targets in Palestinian areas in retaliation for the bombing last month in Netanya. Mofaz has been rebuffed in previous requests for harsh strikes against Palestinian Authority targets on grounds that this would hurt Israel's image in the international community.

"We present plans for the inner cabinet's approval, but the inner Cabinet rejects them," Mofaz told Jewish settlement leaders on Nov. 22.

Barak, the sources said, has also given the military greater leeway in fighting the mini-war against the Palestinians. This includes a relaxation of orders to open fire on Palestinian forces, closure of the territories and the denial of PA officials the right to enter Israel.

The concern by the generals, the sources said, is that Barak will order an offensive that is meant to bolster the standing of the prime minister in the polls. They said Barak appears to consult with his campaign advisers more than he does with Mofaz and particularly his deputy, Maj. Gen. Moshe Yaalon.

Yaalon is said to be on Barak's bad side. Yaalon has repeatedly warned that the mini-war would continue unless Israel takes harsh steps to punish PA Chairman Yasser Arafat and his chief aides. Military sources said Yaalon and senior commanders are convinced that Israel could have ended the violence in mid-October had Barak followed the recommendations of the military.

The sources said Barak has his favorites on the General Staff. They said some of them — such as Maj. Gen. Giora Eiland, head of the operations directorate — are sent to the United States to brief U.S. officials and Jewish groups. In contrast, Yaalon and the head of research at military intelligence, Brig. Gen. Amos Gilead, have been marginalized.

The military brass has complained to Barak that it has been unable to obtain his approval for major decisions regarding preparations for a regional war. These include decisions on senior appointments, the formation of new combat units and budget questions.

At issue, the military sources said, is budget funding. The military is seeking as much as 5 billion shekels [$1.2 billion] for war preparations while Barak is considering providing about 2 billion shekels.

Last month, Mofaz promoted two officers to the General Staff, bringing the number of major generals in active service to 22, the largest in decades. Brig. Gen. Eyal Ben-Reuven, 46, was promoted to commander of a corps, and will be promoted to major general. Brig. Gen. Dan Harel, 45, was appointed to commander of operations and will also be promoted.