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Back in September, we wrote here that "Brazilian officials publicly reject the suggestion that they want to be considered the regional leader-they know a heavy-handed approach would upset their neighbors, particularly Argentina. But they count on some help from outside the region."
Just last week they got it.
An independent task force sponsored by the U.S. private, but powerful Council on Foreign Relations, reported in a memorandum to President George W. Bush that "we are at one of those watershed moments in history where the United States and Brazil share many key objectives and values. The Task Force recommends that the president initiate without delay a thoroughgoing review of U.S. policy toward Brazil and examine where the United States and Brazil can work together on vital matters such as trade, drugs, and regional security and move thereafter to engage in a high-level sustained and cooperative strategic dialogue with Brazilian leaders . . . .
". . . .Brazil can and should be a crucial player with the United States in sustaining economic reform and democracy, in promoting free trade and open markets, and in combating narcotics, terrorism, and transregional crime. If we want to expand the Free Trade Area from North America into South America, Brazil is going to be the critical nation. If we want to tackle drug problems on a hemisphere-wide basis, Brazil is key to getting that organized. If we want to sustain democracy, it won't happen if democracy fails in Brazil. None of these fundamental U.S. policies will work in the end without Brazil. Brazil is the fulcrum."
The task force was headed by Stephen Robert, Chairman of Robert Capital Management, Chancellor of Brown University and former Chairman and CEO of Oppenheimer Group and gathered 22 distinguished men and women from the foreign policy establishment and academia as well as prominent business and Wall Street executives.
The bare facts are more than enough to support their view. With an area 50 percent larger than the contiguous United States, Brazil occupies nearly one-half of South America and has a common frontier with every country in the continent except Chile and Ecuador. As the report notes, "Brazil is a major economic power and is a leader among advanced emerging markets. Brazil's economy is more than twice as large as Russia's, almost as large as China's, and twice India's. Brazil is the main player in South America, with over half of the region's GDP and population. Brazil is the second-largest market in the world for executive jets and helicopters; the second for cellular telephones and fax machines; the fourth for refrigerators; the fifth for compact discs; and the third for soft drinks. With purchasing power parity of over U.S. $1 trillion, in 2001 Brazil will rank fifth in the world, after the United States, China, Japan, and Germany. Brazil is the leader of Mercosul-the Common Market of the South, which incorporates Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and has special relations with Chile and Bolivia-and sees Mercosul [Mercosur in Portuguese] as being of great importance for its future geopolitical as well as economic role in South America."
The memorandum also point out that "the United States is Brazil's main trading partner. U.S. exports to Brazil have more than doubled since 1991 and totaled more than U.S. $13 billion in 1999. Trade with Brazil is particularly important for states such as Florida, where Brazil replaced Japan in 1995 as the number one trade partner."
But the task force goes much further in making its case, reaching the heights of a paean to the common spirit that should join together both countries.
"Both the United States and Brazil are continental-sized nations. Each has a strong and vibrant national culture; the society of each is made up of the descendants of large immigrant populations; both countries must deal with the deep-rooted heritages and lingering injustices of centuries of African slavery; and both have frontier cultures where settlers have often clashed with the indigenous population", the memorandum states. "Each traditionally relied on a vast internal market, with relatively small export shares: around 8 percent for Brazil, which has changed little over the past three decades, whereas the U.S. export share has grown substantially as the United States has become a globalized economy. Each has had an ambiguous relationship with the outside world, at times heavily involved, at times retreating into near isolationism. Both have domestic politics in which local and often parochial interests prevail; both have been seen by their neighbors as expansionist powers. Despite the asymmetry of their power, both have aspired to regional leadership roles."
The memorandum urges President Bush "to move quickly to build a high-level working relationship with Brazil based on common interests. We recognize that this will not always be easy. Any new initiative toward Brazil will need to manage mutual differences. It cannot be seen as a relationship that excludes other South American neighbors."
The Task Force should not be concerned. Probably because South Americans are not aware of the weight of the Council on Foreign Relations in this matter, government officials and the region's media virtually ignored the memorandum. Brazilians, of course, were wise enough to lay low, but the news must have added some excitement to their ongoing Carnival celebration
Claudio Campuzano (claudio-campuzano@hotmail.com) is U.S, correspondent for the Latin American newsweekly Tiempos del Mundo and editorial page editor of the New York daily Noticias del Mundo. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com