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Gen. Zinni predicts Iran's imminent test of Shihab-3 missile

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Thursday, December 23, 1999

WASHINGTON -- Iran plans an imminent launch of its Shihab-3 intermediate-range ballistic missile, a senior U.S. military commander said.

Gen. Anthony Zinni, commander-in-chief of U.S. Central Command, said Iran will test the Shihab very soon. He did not elaborate.

Zinni said Iran's missile program, which includes at least three version of the Shihab, makes Teheran a long term threat to the United States and the greatest challenge in the Persian Gulf region.

"I think [Iran] will have nuclear capability in a few years also," Zinni told the Association of the United States Army in Washington.

Zinni's assertion was the first that reported a development in Iran's Shihab-3 program. Earlier, Israeli and U.S. defense sources said development of the Shihab-3, with a range of 1,300 kilometers, was mired in technical difficulties and that deployment of the missile would not take place for another two years.

This means that the Shihab-3 was at least three years behind the schedule assessed by Western intelligence sources. They said Iran appears to be having difficulty with the Shihab's engine and warhead.

The commander said the Shihab-3 will eventually carry a nonconventional warhead. He said Iran has replaced Iraq as the greatest threat to the United States in the Middle East and the Gulf, pointing to Iran's investments in sea mines, submarines and relocatable missiles.

Zinni said international sanctions on Baghdad has restricted its weapons development program. Iran, he said, has intensified efforts to develop improved models of the Shihab-3. This includes the Shihab-4, with an estimated range of at least 2,000 kilometers, capable of reaching southern Europe.

"They have not disavowed the aims of the revolution, and they still have an intelligence service that is up to no good," Zinni said.

At the Pentagon, Defense Department spokesman Ken Bacon agreed with Zinni's assessment on the Iranian threat. "I think that right now, Iraq's ability to develop new missiles has been very limited by the sanctions, and probably by its, also, inability to sell large amounts -- larger amounts of oil than under the oil-for-food program," he said. "So I think they've probably had less resources to apply to this than Iran has recently, so it's not surprising that the Iranian program would be operating a faster pace than the Iraqi program."

Thursday, December 23, 1999

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