LONDON -- Syrian President Hafez Assad -- stymied by ill health,
internal opposition and the struggle for succession -- has been rendered
incapable of making the decision to resume peace efforts with Israel,
diplomats said.
The assessment is shared by diplomatic sources from both the United
States and France, the two Western countries regarded as closest to
Damascus. The sources, some of whom have met with Assad over the last few
weeks, said the Syrian president can do little more these days than maintain
his regime.
"We are dealing with a physically and politically weak president," a
source said. "Nobody is challenging Assad's rule. But Assad does not feel he
has support for any major changes."
The assessment comes as U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
prepares to arrive in Damascus on Tuesday for talks with Assad. Diplomatic
sources said Ms. Albright's main goal is to gauge Assad's condition and his
willingness to resume peace talks with Israel.
Syrian officials were quoted in the Egyptian government Al Ahram daily
on Monday as being pessimistic that Ms. Albright would achieve a
breakthrough.
The diplomats said Assad appears extremely tired and listless and has
lost much of his long-admired focus and stamina. They said Syrian Foreign
Minister Farouk A-Shaara also appears weak and extremely skinny in wake of
his heart operation.
French diplomats who recently visited Syria said Assad appears more
cautious than ever. They said for the first time in years Assad faces
opposition from the ruling Baath Party to an unconditional resumption of
peace talks with Israel. The Baath opposition insists that Assad remain firm
in his demand that Israel must first commit to a withdrawal from the entire
Golan Heights, captured in the 1967 war.
U.S. diplomatic sources agree. They said Assad worries that any apparent
Syrian concession will hurt his efforts to groom his son, Bashar, as
successor. They said the succession issue is the leading factor in Assad's
domestic and foreign policy.
The sources said the greatest threat to the Assad regime concerns the
fighting within the ruling family over succession. They have confirmed
reports that the family is divided over whether the 34-year-old Bashar, an
opthamologist, should succeed his father.
French officials have urged the Israeli government of Prime Minister
Ehud Barak to honor what the Syrians claim was a commitment given by the
late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1994 for a full withdrawal from the
Golan Heights. They said unless an agreement is signed with Assad,
peace-making efforts could be set back for up to 15 years.
Israeli leaders are insisting there is no rush. Publicly, Barak said
Assad has not lost any of his authority.
"Assad is the president," Barak said. "There is no question that he is
strong and very authoritative. He is the first and last word in everything
that has to do with peace and security in Syria.
But other Israeli officials, and sources said Barak himself, said Assad
will not budge from his position. Some of the officials privately blame the
United States, including President Bill Clinton, for making pledges of a
full withdrawal from the Golan Heights without consulting Israel.
"The gap is too great," former Prime Minister Shimon Peres said. "Assad
lives under the impression that he has an Israeli commitment to withdraw to
the June 4, 1967 lines. It could be that he has something. But it is not an
Israeli commitment."
